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	A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change
	Yin Y.; Tang, Q.; Liu, X.
	2015
关键词	line simulation characteristics earth system model wheat production maize production change impacts cmip5 productivity formulation noresm1-m scenarios
英文摘要	Climate change may affect crop growth and yield, which consequently casts a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiency efforts. In this study, we used the projections derived from four global gridded crop models (GGCropMs) to assess the effects of future climate change on the yields of the major crops (i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat) in China. The GGCropMs were forced with the bias-corrected climate data from five global climate models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, which were made available through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The results show that the potential yields of the crops would decrease in the 21st century without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect. With the CO2 effect, the potential yields of rice and soybean would increase, while the potential yields of maize and wheat would decrease. The uncertainty in yields resulting from the GGCropMs is larger than the uncertainty derived from GCMs in the greater part of China. Climate change may benefit rice and soybean yields in highaltitude and cold regions which are not in the current main agricultural area. However, the potential yields of maize, soybean and wheat may decrease in the major food production area. Development of new agronomic management strategies may be useful for coping with climate change in the areas with a high risk of yield reduction.
出处	Earth System Dynamics
卷	6
期	1
页	45-59
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	2190-4979
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/39001]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin Y.,Tang, Q.,Liu, X.. A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change. 2015.

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