人工人口与交通需求关系计算实验研究

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题名	人工人口与交通需求关系计算实验研究
作者	赵红霞
学位类别	工学博士
答辩日期	2009-05-20
授予单位	中国科学院研究生院
授予地点	中国科学院自动化研究所
导师	王飞跃
关键词	复杂性科学 ACP 理论人工人口系统活动交通需求 complexity science ACP approach artificial population system activity travel demand
其他题名	A Study on Computational Experiments of Relationship between Artificial Population and Travel Demand
学位专业	控制理论与控制工程
中文摘要	城市交通与人口密切相关。一方面，由于城市人口数量急剧增加，人们参加各种社会工作、生活、文化、娱乐活动日益频繁，交通需求的增长成为城市发展无法避免的客观事实。另一方面，因为不同年龄、性别的人们参与的活动不同，交通需求表现出明显的个性化、多样化特点。目前我国已经进入了城市化的中期加速发展阶段，未来的城市人口数量、人口结构将发生重大变化，势必引发交通需求的重大变化。因此，研究人口与交通需求的关系，合理地预见和规划未来的交通运输系统，保障和促进城市化进程的健康持续发展是一项亟待研究的科研问题。本文在复杂性科学ACP 理论的基础上，结合人口学，交通科学相关的理论方法，研究了人工人口模型和交通需求模型，实现了人工人口与交通需求的理论研究与计算实验。论文的主要工作包括以下几个方面：首先，对交通需求研究进行了综述，介绍了经典的四阶段集计模型和非集计模型，总结了交通需求研究的新发展，并对人口研究内容和方法进行了归纳总结，指出人口模型是交通需求模型的基础。其次，论述了人口系统是一个复杂自适应系统，分析了传统的人口研究与复杂性科学视角下的人口研究之间的区别，提出了基于ACP 理论的人工人口系统框架。对比分析了美国人口普查资料和中国人口普查资料，从中抽取基本的人口研究变量，设计了人工人口的代理结构，通过个体的规则产生动态人工人口，建立了基于代理的人工人口模型。再次，对比分析了美国个人出行调查资料和中国个人出行调查资料，从中抽取基本的活动研究变量，结合基于活动的方法，设计了人工人口的代理行为规则，通过个体的活动产生整体交通需求，建立了基于活动的交通需求计算过程模型。最后，开展了人工人口与交通需求的计算实验研究，选取中关村局部区域作为实验的参考场景，研究人口规模、人口年龄结构以及人口分布对交通需求的影响，分析了三种人口发展趋势下的交通需求变化。
英文摘要	Urban traffic is closely related to urban population. On the one hand, the number of urban population increases sharply, people frequently participate in a variety of social work, life, culture and recreation activities, which make the growth of travel demand cannot be avoided. On the other hand, people of different age, gender involve in different activities, which make travel demand become personalized and diversified. At present, China has entered the acceleration stage of urbanization. In the future, there will be significant changes in the number of population and the structure of population. As a result, it will leads to great changes in travel demand. Therefore we need to study the relationship between population and travel demand, make reasonable forecasting and plan of the traffic system, which can ensure and promote the health, continuous development of urbanization. This dissertation is based on the complexity science ACP approach,combined with demographic, transportation science and other related theories,artificial population model and travel demand model are implemented and some related experiments are carried out. Main works of this dissertation are as follows. Firstly, travel demand study is reviewed, traditional four-stage aggregate model and disaggregate models are introuced, new developments of travel demand study are summarized. And the contents and methods of population study are chiefly summarized. It is pointed out that population model is the basis of travel demand model. Secondly, the view that population system is a complex adaptive system is addressed. Distinctions between traditional population research and population research from the perspective of complexity science are point out. The framework of artificial population system based on ACP approach is given. Basic demographic variables are selected after comparative analysis of U.S. census data and China census data. The structure of agents in artificial population is designed.The dynamic artificial population is generated by agent’s rules. An agent based artificial population model is implemented. Thirdly, a study on activity based travel demand model is specified. Basic activity variables are selected after comparative analysis of U.S. personal travel survey and China personal travel survey. According to the activity based approach, the behavioral process of agent to schedule daily activities is designed.Travel demand is generated by agents’ daily a...
语种	中文
其他标识符	200618014628014
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/6149]
专题	毕业生_博士学位论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	赵红霞. 人工人口与交通需求关系计算实验研究[D]. 中国科学院自动化研究所. 中国科学院研究生院. 2009.