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题名	社会经济系统的复杂现象研究--社会悖论的研究和应用
作者	吴坚忠
学位类别	工学博士
答辩日期	1989-11-01
授予单位	中国科学院自动化研究所
授予地点	中国科学院自动化研究所
导师	何善堉 ; 郑应平
关键词	社会悖论
学位专业	控制理论与控制工程
中文摘要	本文应用对策理论方法，对社会经济系统中出现的一类复杂现象一一社会 悖论进行系统的研究，探索人类在各种利益冲突情况下的行为机制，揭示竞争 与合作的演化规律，为社会经济系统群体行为调控科学化提供有参考价值的研 究成果。 社会悖论是指：由于个体利益和群体利益的矛盾，短期利益和长期利益的 矛盾，人们在作选择时陷入的进退两难的困境。这是一类很复杂的社会现象， 以往的研究主要集中子定性研究和实验解释。本文采用定性与定量相结合的分 析方法做了以下的二作： 用统一的N人对策数学模型描述三类不同的社会悖论问题，通过分析对策 者在对策中的各种微观利益动机， 提出表征群体合作倾向的对策结构合作指 数，揭示了个人理性与群体理性矛盾统一的本质。并用社会悖论实验验证了提 出的命题：在N人社会悖论的对策中，结构合作指数越大，对策群体的合作性 越大。文中根据社会饽论的现实背景要求，提出资源不变原则，并在其基础上， 探讨提高群体合作性的几个途经，从理论上证明了领地划分是提高群体合作的 有效方法。并对社会经济系统中的一些实际问题作了相应的分析。这一部分工 作为前人所做的实验探索提供了一个统一的理论框架。 用时间贯序决策模型，描述表现为短期利益与长期利益矛盾的社会悖论问 题，重点分析了个人贯序决策悖论(个人陷阱)问题，并用个人陷阱分析了重 复二人囚犯悖论问题，得出了当一方采用“一报还一报”策略时，对策的另一 方将处于“个人陷阱”的结论。揭示了重复二人囚犯悖论的又一性质。文中还 用定量的方法分析了p l a t t提出的个人陷阱强化机制，具有不同的强化函 数R的可摆脱型陷阱和毒瘾陷阱模型可以用于描述不同类型的社会悖论现象， 特别是毒瘾陷阱模型适合用于描述具有恶性循环的时间贯序决策悖论问题，本 文还引入表征对策者对未来利益重视程度的效用衰减系数K，指出：人们对未 来利益越重视(K大)，他选择合作策略的倾向越大。本文中建立的N人时间 对策悖论模型描述了可再生资源利用的悖论问题，进一步说明领地划分方法的 适用性。 本文第一次提出产生社会悖论的两个基本原因，并针对两个原因讨论了提 高群体合作性，打破社会悖论的几种方法。接着文中定义了一类新的社会悖沦 问题一一资源危机悖论，用于描述当群体选择的资源量超过资源总量限度后， 群体每个人将一无所得的社会悖论问题，通过对人们在“危机”情况下的各种 理性动机的分析，提出分析重复N
英文摘要	The study of Social Dilemmas was originated in common resources management field. Recently it has been devoloped to study the pazzling social problems in which people's short-term or individual interests is pitted against their long-term or group interests. In the thesis, based on the principle of game theory, a method combined with quilitative and quantitative analysis was used to explore the behavior machanism of human in the situation of interests conflict, and to expose the evolution rule of competition and cooperation. First, a kind of mathematic model was built to express the Social Dilemma. Ana|ysized interest motives of the players in the games, a structure coopera- tive index which stand for the groups cooperative trends was derived. A proposition about the index was presented: In a N-person Social Dilemma, the larger the sturcture cooperation index, the more the cooperation of the game group. It was tested by Social Dilemma experiments. So we can raise the group cooperation by varying the structure cooperative index. In the paper, a fixed resource principle was presentod for paramater range. It is said: " For a given N-person prisoner's Social Dilemma problem, any measures for increasing the cooperation (or increasing the index Q) can not change the amounts of the resource." Based on the principle, we discussed several ways for raseing the group's cooperation. The territorial Division was proofed a effective method for raising the groups cooperation. The time sequence models were proposed to describe and analysis the Social Dilemma "social traps" in which the Short-term interest conflicts with the Long-term interest. From the model, an recurrence formula was developed for this time sequence dilemma Using the model, we analyzed the mu]tisteps "prisoner's dilemma" and pointed out that when one uses "tit for tat" strategy, the opponent may face a "sociat traps", in which any noncooperation behavior will damage himself interest. The reinforcement mechanism of the "social traps" has been described quantitatively. Some equilibrium points were defined. The stability of the equilibrium points was discussed as the features of different types of the time squence dilemma. In the paper, the basic causes of the Social Dilemmas were proposed. Some mathoeds for rasing the group's cooperation and preaking out the Social Dilemmas were discussed. A new Social Dilemma The Resource Crisis Dilemma was defined to discrese the situation in which if the total resource amounts the players chosen were more than the resource limit, everyone can not get anything at all. By analysing the several rational motives of people in "the resource crisis", an rational experctation theory was propesed to describe the multisteps resource crisis dilemma. The theorem of "rational experctation' pointed out : In the resource crisis dilemma", the "rational experctation" strategy was the stabile cooperation stra
语种	中文
其他标识符	174
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/5615]
专题	毕业生_博士学位论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	吴坚忠. 社会经济系统的复杂现象研究--社会悖论的研究和应用[D]. 中国科学院自动化研究所. 中国科学院自动化研究所. 1989.

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