Scenarios of land cover in China

CORC > 生态环境研究中心 > 中国科学院生态环境研究中心 > 城市与区域生态国家重点实验室

	Scenarios of land cover in China
	Yue, Tian Xiang ; Fan, Ze Meng ; Liu, Ji Yuan
刊名	GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
	2007-02
卷号	55 期号:4 页码:317-342
关键词	land cover scenarios climatic change surface modeling China
英文摘要	A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
WOS记录号	WOS:000244337700007
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/22386]
专题	生态环境研究中心_城市与区域生态国家重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yue, Tian Xiang,Fan, Ze Meng,Liu, Ji Yuan. Scenarios of land cover in China[J]. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,2007,55(4):317-342.
APA	Yue, Tian Xiang,Fan, Ze Meng,&Liu, Ji Yuan.(2007).Scenarios of land cover in China.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,55(4),317-342.
MLA	Yue, Tian Xiang,et al."Scenarios of land cover in China".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 55.4(2007):317-342.