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题名	交通战略保障方案实施决策支持系统
作者	管冰蕾
学位类别	硕士
答辩日期	2005-05-31
授予单位	中国科学院沈阳自动化研究所
授予地点	中国科学院沈阳自动化研究所
导师	胡静涛
关键词	动态评价指标体系 模糊层次分析法 综合评价法 决策支持系统
其他题名	Decision Support System for Executing Safeguard Schemes on Traffic Combat Readiness
学位专业	模式识别与智能系统
中文摘要	交通战备保障是指根据军事目的，为准备、保持、恢复、提高交通运输能力所采取的各种措施，旨在为平时和战时的军事需要提供能力适应和稳定畅通的交通条件。交通战备保障方案是进行交通保障的依据和指南，其目的是保障战备物资和人员的及时到位，最大限度地发挥交通运输的能力。 由于保障目标自身的特点以及现场形势的不确定性，导致保障方案涉及的信息量大、信息来源复杂，尤其是具体的实施方案具有很高的现势性，因此如何选择合适的保障方案来实施，是应对各类突发事件的关键。目前，保障方案的评选缺乏规范性，大多是靠人的经验来进行方案评选的，这样往往不能全面地考虑问题，使方案的评选具有明显的主观性和片面性，严重影响了方案的具体实施。 本文以交通战备管理信息系统为依托，在分析和总结现有综合评价理论和方法的基础上，提出了基于动态评价指标体系的模糊层次综合评价模型，通过建立保障方案评价的智能决策支持系统，来帮助决策者选择最合适的实施方案的思想。 基于动态评价指标体系的模糊层次综合评价模型的主要思路是：动态地构造评价指标体系，结合改进的层次分析法来确定权值，对方案进行模糊综合评价。其中，在构建动态评价指标体系部分，本文提出了最大可能评价树和动态评价树的概念，介绍了这两种树的节点特征和构造方法，并给出了相应的裁剪算法和添加算法，从而实现评价指标体系的动态建立，极大地减轻了评价体系建立的工作量。另外，采用改进的层次分析法解决了由于判断矩阵构造的不一致性所带来的问题；同时还对模糊综合评价过程中模糊算子的选择问题做了分析。 本文以上述模型为基础，完成了保障方案实施决策支持系统的设计，包括系统总体结构和功能的设计，以及数据库子系统、模型库子系统、方法库子系统、知识库子系统及人机交互子系统的设计。最后，利用本文所提出的综合评价模型，以港口战备保障方案的评选为例，详细介绍了保障方案实施决策支持系统的实现。
索取号	U491/G82/2005
英文摘要	Safeguard on traffic combat readiness implies using various measures to prepare for, maintain, resume and enhance the capability of transportation facilities according to the military assignment, intending to provide traffic conditions of capacity adaptation and expedite stability on normal or war military situations. As the ordinance and guidelines, the safeguard schemes of traffic combat readiness are oriented for the requirements of military struggle and civilian salvage, to ensure delivery of emergent materials and rescue staffs in time. Special characteristics of the safeguard task, including the uncertainty of field situation, enormous and complex information, make the safeguard schemes hard to choose. Nevertheless, the selection of the right safeguard scheme is the key to solve these problems. Currently, evaluation and choice of safeguard schemes, due to the lack of generally acceptable standards, are mainly depended on human experiences, which often lead to the absence of all-around consideration. As a result, the outcomes are sometimes biased and hamper the actual implementation. Considering the requirements of the management system for traffic combat readiness, this thesis analyzes and summaries various evaluation theories and methods, and puts forward intelligent decision support systems using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on Dynamic Evaluation Index System. The establishing of safeguard schemes evaluation aims to help decision-makers to choose the most suitable implementation schemes. The main thought of this evaluation model is to estimate schemes with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation through constitution of Dynamic Evaluation Index System and adopting advanced Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). For the constitution of Dynamic Evaluation Index System, this thesis brings forward the concept of Maximum Possible Evaluation Tree and Dynamic Evaluation Tree, and also gives corresponding algorithm of abstraction and accession, with characteristics and formation methods of these evaluation trees, thereby realizing conformation of Dynamic Evaluation Index System to alleviate workload from constitution of Evaluation Index System. In addition, the adopted advanced AHP could be used to resolve the difficulty on deciding consistency comparison matrix. Meantime, this model also analyzes the option on fuzzy operators during the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation process. Based on the model mentioned above, this thesis presents the design on intelligent decision support system of safeguard schemes executing, including general system organization and functional configuration, and detailed design of sub-systems of Database, Model Base, Algorithm Base, Knowledge Base and User Interface. Finally, making use of the comprehensive evaluation model mentioned above, this thesis introduces a detailed implementation of the decision support system for safeguard scheme on port combat readiness.
语种	中文
产权排序	1
公开日期	2012-08-29
分类号	U491
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.sia.ac.cn/handle/173321/9469]
专题	沈阳自动化研究所_工业信息学研究室_工业控制系统研究室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	管冰蕾. 交通战略保障方案实施决策支持系统[D]. 中国科学院沈阳自动化研究所. 中国科学院沈阳自动化研究所. 2005.

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