Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach

CORC > 成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > Journal of Mountain Science > Journal of Mountain Science-2014 > Vol11 No.6

	Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach
	Bahram CHOUBIN ; Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI ; Arash MALEKIAN ; Sajjad AHMAD ; Pedram ATTAROD
刊名	Journal of Mountain Science
	2014-11
卷号	11 期号:6 页码:1593-1605
关键词	Annual Rainfall Large-scale Climate Signals Neuro-Fuzzy Cross-Correlation Principal Components Analysis Drought
通讯作者	Sajjad AHMAD
英文摘要	Large-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed, located in Iran, using a neuro-fuzzy model. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used as a proxy for drought conditions. Among the 45 climate indices considered, eight identified as most relevant were the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), the Bivariate ENSO Time series (BEST), the East Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature (NINO 3.4), the Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature (NINO 4), the North Tropical Atlantic Index (NTA), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA). These indices accounted for 81% of the variance in the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) method. The Atlantic surface temperature (SST: Atlantic) had an inverse relationship with SPI, and the AMM index had the highest correlation. Drought forecasts of neuro-fuzzy model demonstrate better prediction at a two-year lag compared to a stepwise regression model.
收录类别	SCI
公开日期	2014-11-18
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/7427]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_Journal of Mountain Science _Journal of Mountain Science-2014_Vol11 No.6
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bahram CHOUBIN,Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI,Arash MALEKIAN,et al. Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2014,11(6):1593-1605.
APA	Bahram CHOUBIN,Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI,Arash MALEKIAN,Sajjad AHMAD,&Pedram ATTAROD.(2014).Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach.Journal of Mountain Science,11(6),1593-1605.
MLA	Bahram CHOUBIN,et al."Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach".Journal of Mountain Science 11.6(2014):1593-1605.