QQ客服 官方微博 反馈留言

	Runoff variation and its response to climate change in the Three Rivers Source Region
	Xia J.
	2012
关键词	climate change runoff variation SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Mann-Kendall test Three Rivers Source Region
英文摘要	Runoff at the three time scales (non-flooding season, flooding season and annual period) was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai (Yellow River Source Region: YeSR), Zhimenda (Yangtze River Source Region: YaSR) and Changdu (Lancang River Source Region: LcSR) by hydrological modeling, trend detection and comparative analysis. Also, future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested. The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR, which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River, and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin, but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years. Compared with the runoff in baseline (1990s), the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years (2010-2039), especially in the non-flooding season. Thus the water shortage in the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously. The runoff in YaSR would increase, especially in the flooding season, thus the flood control situation would be severe. The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff, and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly, while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain. It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model. Furthermore, the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR, followed by YeSR and LcSR.
出处	Journal of Geographical Sciences
卷	22
期	5
页	781-794
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	1009-637X
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/30681]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xia J.. Runoff variation and its response to climate change in the Three Rivers Source Region. 2012.

个性服务

查看访问统计

相关权益政策

暂无数据

收藏/分享

除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。