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	Interactions between land use change, regional development, and climate change in the Poyang Lake district from 1985 to 2035
	Yan D. ; Schneider U. A. ; Schmid E. ; Huang H. Q. ; Pan L. H. ; Dilly O.
	2013
关键词	Agent based modeling Rice agriculture Climate scenario China Land use change Rural development cellular-automata crop production cover change model impacts simulation responses dynamics systems china
英文摘要	Land use change and climate change are two major global modifications of our environment and are predicted to continue in the future. To assess how climate change affects land use and regional development in the Poyang Lake district in China, we use agent-based modeling and simulate the physical and socio-economic drivers within two interactive sub-models for urban expansion and rural development. The modeling outputs from 1985 to 2005 show good agreement with the observed land use change. Possible land use changes and regional development paths until 2035 are examined for three SRES scenarios including A1B (rapid growth), A2 (regional-diversified growth) and B1 (growth with clean technologies). The results show that climate change induced impacts on land use change and regional development are highly relevant and may even amplify the complex interactions. In particular, cropland, forest, water area, urban, and grassland are more sensitive to these changes than unused land. The more environmental friendly B1 scenario results in less concerning land use changes. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
出处	Agricultural Systems
卷	119
页	10-21
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	0308-521X
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/30124]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yan D.,Schneider U. A.,Schmid E.,et al. Interactions between land use change, regional development, and climate change in the Poyang Lake district from 1985 to 2035. 2013.

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