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	Climate change trend in China, with improved accuracy
	Yue T. X. ; Zhao N. ; Ramsey R. D. ; Wang C. L. ; Fan Z. M. ; Chen C. F. ; Lu Y. M. ; Li B. L.
	2013
关键词	spatial interpolation
英文摘要	We have found that a spatial interpolation of mean annual temperature (MAT) in China can be accomplished using a global ordinary least squares regression model since the relationship between temperature and its environmental determinants is constant. Therefore the estimation of MAT does not very across space and thus exhibits spatial stationarity. The interpolation of mean annual precipitation (MAP), however, is more complex and changes spatially as a function of topographic variation. Therefore, MAP shows spatial non-stationarity and must be estimated with a geographically weighted regression. A statistical transfer function (STF) of MAT was formulated using minimized residuals output from a high accuracy and high speed method for surface modeling (HASM) with an ordinary least squares (OLS) linear equation that uses latitude and elevation as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM-OLS. The STF of MAP under a BOX-COX transformation is derived as a combination of minimized residuals output by HASM with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) using latitude, longitude, elevation, impact coefficient of aspect and sky view factor as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM-GWR-BC. In terms of HASM-OLS and HASM-GWR-BC, MAT had an increasing trend since the 1960s in China, with an especially accelerated increasing trend since 1980. Overall, our data show that MAT has increased by 1.44 A degrees C since the 1960s. The warming rates increase from the south to north in China, except in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Specifically, the 2,100 A degrees C A center dot d contour line of annual accumulated temperature (AAT) of a parts per thousand yen10 A degrees C shifted northwestward 255 km in the Heilongjiang province since the 1960s. MAP in Qinghai-Xizang plateau and in arid region had a continuously increasing trend. In the other 7 regions of China, MAP shows both increasing and decreasing trends. On average, China became wetter from the 1960s to the 1990s, but drier from the 1990s to 2000s. The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Northern China experienced more climatic extremes than Southern China since the 1960s.
出处	Climatic Change
卷	120
期	1-2
页	137-151
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	0165-0009
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/30072]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yue T. X.,Zhao N.,Ramsey R. D.,et al. Climate change trend in China, with improved accuracy. 2013.

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