| 题名 | 区域大气颗粒物环境风险模拟、评估与管理研究——以秦皇岛港区域为例 |
| 作者 | 张晓春 |
| 学位类别 | 博士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2013-05 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院研究生院 |
| 授予地点 | 北京 |
| 导师 | 陈卫平 |
| 关键词 | 区域环境 大气颗粒物 数学模拟 环境风险 环境管理 regional environment atmospheric particulate matter mathematical modeling environment risk environment management |
| 其他题名 | Atmospheric Particulate Matter Regional Environment Risk Simulation, Assessment and Management: A Case of Qinghuangdao Port Region |
| 学位专业 | 生态学 |
| 中文摘要 | 随着我国经济的高速发展，大气环境问题日趋严重，已经成为我国面临的主要环境问题之一。区域大气环境风险大幅度提高，致使人民群众健康受到严重的影响，生态系统遭到不可逆转的破坏。近年来，随着城市化进程的加快和社会经济的快速发展以及随之而来的能源、资源需求量的增加，大气环境问题越来越突出，近期严重影响公众健康和社会正常秩序的大规模频繁灰霾污染事件就是大气污染的典型例子。开展区域大气环境风险模拟与评估的研究，建立快速有效的风险预警机制，减少大气污染风险引发的重大后果和损失，加强对大气环境风险的管理具有重要的意义。 本文以秦皇岛港及周边区域为研究区域，构建了从源到汇的风险理论体系，开展了区域大气环境风险模拟、评估与管理研究。主要研究结果如下： （1）构建了区域大气环境风险源辨识与危险性评估方法。通过评估大气环境风险事件发生的可能性、风险源暴露于大气环境的频繁程度、发生大气环境风险事件后风险源的不可控程度，构建区域大气环境风险源辨识和危险性评估方法。并对秦皇岛港区域大气颗粒物风险源进行了评估，对评估结果的有效性进行了验证。结果表明，研究区域的主要大气颗粒物风险源为作业过程中形成的动态风险源和堆场露天储存过程中形成的静态风险源。 （2）开展了区域大气环境风险源模拟研究。将风洞试验与数值模拟相结合，构建了区域大气环境风险源模拟方法。并按动态风险源和静态风险源分别甄选模型，对秦皇岛港区域大气颗粒物风险源进行了模拟。通过模型分析和数学推导，改进动态风险源数学模型和静态风险源摩擦临界风速模型，并设计动态风险源物理模型实验进行了模型的验证。统计分析和理论分析结果表明，改进模型适用于研究区域的动态风险源模拟和静态风险源模拟。进一步，采用数值模拟计算方法，模拟了常年年均风速下8 个风向和极端风速风向下的静态风险源区域的内部湍流场。计算了秦皇岛港区域大气颗粒物动态风险源和静态风险源的强度。结果表明，研究区域大气颗粒物风险源总强度为1.00×108 kg/a，其中动态风险源强度总计为2.60 ×107kg/a，静态风险源强度总计为7.40 ×107 kg/a。 （3）开展了研究区域大气环境风险物质扩散评估。结果表明，研究区域大气颗粒物在未采取控制措施下扩散影响的地理范围较为广阔，秦皇岛市区大部分范围内PM10年均浓度、PM10日均浓度最大值均达不到WHO指南限值及中国国家标准水平，降尘主要影响风险源附近区域。 （4）开展了研究区域风险汇及潜在公共健康风险和生态风险评估。采用简化的泊松回归比例风险模型进行公共健康风险汇评估，结果表明，秦皇岛市中心部分区域慢性及急性死亡风险分别为该区域正常死亡率的1-2倍和1-1.5倍；风险源周边区域慢性及急性公共健康风险高，分别为该区域正常死亡率的5-10倍和2-4倍。借鉴Hakanson重金属潜在风险评价方法，建立生态风险汇评估方法，对区域20年、50年和100年的陆域和海域生态风险汇进行了模拟评估。结果表明，随着时间的增加，区域累积综合生态风险不断增加。 （5）提出了区域大气环境风险管理的框架和实现的途径原则，并给出了避免风险、转移风险、减轻风险、抑制风险四个层面的管理途径。避免风险方面，提出了区域大气环境风险的全过程管理和优先管理的建议。转移风险方面，针对区域大气环境风险源的监控管理，提出了研究区域大气环境风险总体控制途径。将与主要人口聚集区距离较近的5#至8#风险源移至距离人口聚集区较远的作业区。减轻风险方面，建立了区域大气环境风险源智能控制系统和环境风险源管理信息系统。抑制风险方面，提出采用生态方法和物理方法进行风险物质扩散控制，给出了大气颗粒物扩散控制途径的设计方案。控制管理措施效果预估结果表明，采取控制和管理措施后区域大气环境风险明显降低。 本研究为将区域大气环境风险评估集成到环境管理和规划层面提供一个良好的参考，为区域规划决策中深入全面的考虑环境风险提供科学的框架，以更好地决策改善生态环境和人类健康，以建设环境友好社会、促进人与自然的和谐发展、实现经济社会的可持续发展。 |
| 英文摘要 | With rapid economic development, atmospheric environment problems are increasing in China. Currently, atmospheric environment issue is one of the most important environmental issues. Regional atmospheric environment risks are greatly increased, which have serious influence on human health and ecosystems. In recent years, with the increase in the demand of energy and resources for accelerated urbanization and rapid development, atmospheric environment issues become increasingly prominent. For example, most cities in China have been experiencing frequent haze pollution recently, which have serious impact on public health. Therefore, it is imperatieve to conduct researches on simulation and evaluation of regional atmospheric environment risks, establish rapid and effective early warning system, reduce significant consequences caused by air pollution, and strengthen atmospheric environment risk management. In this paper, we established the risk theoretical system based on source-sink theory. We conducted research on simulation, assessment and management of regional atmospheric environment risks by theoretical study and case study. The main contents and results are as follows: (1) We studied the definition and characteristics of regional atmospheric environmental risk, and analyzed the theoretical method of source identification for regional atmospheric environmental risk. Identification for atmospheric environment risk plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method （LEC method）and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method of identification and assessment for regional atmospheric environment risk. In this paper, we take the Qinhuangdao Port as case study. We used the method to assess the regional atmospheric environmental risk sources for Qinhuangdao Port. The results of the assessment have been validated. The spatial distribution of main risk sources have been analyzed based on the assessment of risk source. The results show that the risk sources are dynamic risk sources and static risk sources. (2) Atmospheric environment risk source simulations were conducted in the study area. We analyzed the numerical simulation of the regional atmospheric environment risk source based on computational fluid dynamic methods. We simulate and calculate the dynamic risk intensity and static risk intensity of eight risk sources through numerical model, mathematical model and experiments based on aerodynamic theory. The results show that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source are in line with the actual situation.The total intensity of the risk souce is 1.00×108 kg/a, the intensity of dynamic risk souce is 2.60 ×107kg/a, and the intensity of static risk souce is 7.40 ×107 kg/a. (3) We studied the theories and methods of simulation for risk material dispersion. Theoretical methods for risk diffusion simulation and verification means for regional atmospheric environment have been summarized based on analysis of existing theoretical models of atmospheric pollutants diffusion. The result of particulate matter dispersion model for regional atmospheric environment risks show that: atmospheric environmental risk of particulate matter diffusion has wide geographical influences in the area without control measures. The annual average concentration of PM10 is less than the level of WHO guidelines limit. The daily average concentration of PM10 is less than the level of WHO guidelines limit, and the grade I and grade II level in Chinese national standard. (4) We studied the heories and methods of assessment for risk sinks. The assessment methods of risk sink and potential risk intensity have been determined by two aspects, which are public health risk assessment and ecological risk assessment. The assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sinks indicated that chronic and acute public health risks in source areas were high and unacceptable. The mortality of the chronic and acute public health risks in the study area are 1-2 times and 1-1.5 times as high as the normal mortality. The mortality of the chronic and acute public health risks around the study area are 5-10 times and 2-4 times as high as the normal mortality. The similutions of accumulated comprehensive ecological risks were conducted for 20 years, 50 years and 100 years. The regional accumulated comprehensive ecological risk increased with time. (5) The framework and means of regional atmospheric environment risk management were studied based on the results of environmental risk assessment, and the source-sink theoretical system of regional atmospheric environment risk assessment. We put forward the framework of whole process management and priority management for regional atmospheric environmental risk, and develop an intelligent monitoring and control system for risk source prevention, design wind barrier system and ecological barrier system for risk control measures. This research provides reference for integrating regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment into environment management and planning, and provide framework for integrating environmental risk into regional planning comprehensively, and provide decisions for improving environment and human health, in order to promote harmonious development, and to achieve sustainable development. |
| 公开日期 | 2014-10-28 |
| 内容类型 | 学位论文 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/7704]  |
| 专题 | 生态环境研究中心_城市与区域生态国家重点实验室 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 张晓春. 区域大气颗粒物环境风险模拟、评估与管理研究——以秦皇岛港区域为例[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院. 2013. |
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