Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades

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	Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades
	Xiao, Dengpan(肖登攀) ; Tao, Fulu
刊名	EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY
	2014
卷号	52 页码:112-122
关键词	Adaptation Agriculture Agronomic management Crop cultivars Impacts Global dimming
通讯作者	Tao, FL
英文摘要	The detailed field experiment data from 1980 to 2009 at four stations in the North China Plain (NCP), together with a crop simulation model, were used to disentangle the relative contributions of cultivars renewal, fertilization management and climate change to winter wheat yield, as well as the relative impacts of different climate variables on winter wheat yield, in the past three decades. We found that during 1980-2009 cultivars renewal contributed to yield increase by 12.2-22.6%; fertilization management contributed to yield increase by 2.1-3.6%; and climate change contributed to yield generally by -3.0-3.0%, however by -15.0% for rainfed wheat in southern part of the NCP. Modern cultivars and agronomic management played dominant roles in yield increase in the past three decades, nevertheless the estimated impacts of climate change on yield accounted for as large as -23.8-25.0% of observed yield trends. During the study period, increase in temperature increased winter wheat yield by 3.0-6.0% in northern part of the NCP, however reduced rainfed winter wheat yield by 9.0-12.0% in southern part of the NCP. Decrease in solar radiation reduced wheat yield by 3.0-12.0% across the,stations. The impact of precipitation change on winter wheat yield was slight because there were no pronounced trends in precipitation. Our findings highlight that modern cultivars and agronomic management contributed dominantly to yield increase in the past three decades, nevertheless the impacts of climate change were large enough in some areas to affect a significant portion of observed yield trends in the NCP.
收录类别	SCI
资助信息	National Science Foundation of China 41071030；Science and Technology Strategic Pilot Projects of Chinese Academy of Sciences XDA05090308；National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences in China 2010CB950902
公开日期	2014-08-26
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/29206]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_研究生部
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiao, Dengpan,Tao, Fulu. Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades[J]. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY,2014,52:112-122.
APA	Xiao, Dengpan,&Tao, Fulu.(2014).Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades.EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY,52,112-122.
MLA	Xiao, Dengpan,et al."Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades".EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY 52(2014):112-122.