The similarity between optimal precursor and optimally growing initial error in prediction of Kuroshio large meander and its application to targeted observation

CORC > 海洋研究所 > 中国科学院海洋研究所 > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	The similarity between optimal precursor and optimally growing initial error in prediction of Kuroshio large meander and its application to targeted observation
	Wang, Qiang 1,2; Mu, Mu 1,2; Dijkstra, Henk A.3
刊名	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
	2013-02-01
卷号	118 期号:2 页码:869-884
ISSN号	2169-9275
通讯作者	Mu, M
中文摘要	The links between optimal precursor (OPR) and optimally growing initial error (OGIE) in the predictability studies of Kuroshio large meander (LM) are investigated using the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation approach within a 1.5-layer shallow-water model. The OPR is a kind of initial anomaly that is the easiest to cause the occurrence of Kuroshio LM path. The OGIE refers to another kind of initial perturbation that has the largest effects on the prediction of the LM path. Numerical results show that the spatial structures of OPR and OGIEs are similar and their dominant amplitudes are localized upstream of the occurrence region of Kuroshio LM, i.e., southeast of Kyushu. Their spatial patterns are closely related to the potential vorticity distribution of the reference states. The main features of the nonlinear evolutions of both OPR and OGIEs are also similar, which implies that they have a similar development mechanism. The similarities between OPR and OGIEs indicate that targeted observations may be implemented to improve the prediction of the Kuroshio LM path. We define sensitive areas using the spatial patterns of OGIEs and investigate their usefulness. The results show that the initial errors in sensitive areas have greater impacts on the prediction of the Kuroshio LM path than those in other randomly selected areas. In addition, the prediction is more significantly improved when eliminating the part of initial error in the sensitive area than in other areas. Citation: Wang, Q., M. Mu, and H. A. Dijkstra (2013), The similarity between optimal precursor and optimally growing initial error in prediction of Kuroshio large meander and its application to targeted observation, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 118, 869-884, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20084.
英文摘要	The links between optimal precursor (OPR) and optimally growing initial error (OGIE) in the predictability studies of Kuroshio large meander (LM) are investigated using the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation approach within a 1.5-layer shallow-water model. The OPR is a kind of initial anomaly that is the easiest to cause the occurrence of Kuroshio LM path. The OGIE refers to another kind of initial perturbation that has the largest effects on the prediction of the LM path. Numerical results show that the spatial structures of OPR and OGIEs are similar and their dominant amplitudes are localized upstream of the occurrence region of Kuroshio LM, i.e., southeast of Kyushu. Their spatial patterns are closely related to the potential vorticity distribution of the reference states. The main features of the nonlinear evolutions of both OPR and OGIEs are also similar, which implies that they have a similar development mechanism. The similarities between OPR and OGIEs indicate that targeted observations may be implemented to improve the prediction of the Kuroshio LM path. We define sensitive areas using the spatial patterns of OGIEs and investigate their usefulness. The results show that the initial errors in sensitive areas have greater impacts on the prediction of the Kuroshio LM path than those in other randomly selected areas. In addition, the prediction is more significantly improved when eliminating the part of initial error in the sensitive area than in other areas. Citation: Wang, Q., M. Mu, and H. A. Dijkstra (2013), The similarity between optimal precursor and optimally growing initial error in prediction of Kuroshio large meander and its application to targeted observation, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 118, 869-884, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20084.
学科主题	Oceanography
WOS标题词	Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences
类目[WOS]	Oceanography
研究领域[WOS]	Oceanography
关键词[WOS]	NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION ; PATH VARIABILITIES SOUTH ; DATA-ASSIMILATION ; MODEL ; PREDICTABILITY ; SYSTEM ; JAPAN ; EXTENSION ; FORECAST ; OCEAN
收录类别	SCI
原文出处	10.1002/jgrc.20084
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000317840700022
公开日期	2014-07-17
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/16443]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res Utrecht, Dept Phys & Astron, Utrecht, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Qiang,Mu, Mu,Dijkstra, Henk A.. The similarity between optimal precursor and optimally growing initial error in prediction of Kuroshio large meander and its application to targeted observation[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,2013,118(2):869-884.
APA	Wang, Qiang,Mu, Mu,&Dijkstra, Henk A..(2013).The similarity between optimal precursor and optimally growing initial error in prediction of Kuroshio large meander and its application to targeted observation.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,118(2),869-884.
MLA	Wang, Qiang,et al."The similarity between optimal precursor and optimally growing initial error in prediction of Kuroshio large meander and its application to targeted observation".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS 118.2(2013):869-884.