Conditions under which CNOP sensitivity is valid for tropical cyclone adaptive observations

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	Conditions under which CNOP sensitivity is valid for tropical cyclone adaptive observations
	Qin, Xiaohao 1; Duan, Wansuo 1; Mu, Mu 2
刊名	QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
	2013-07-01
卷号	139 期号:675 页码:1544-1554
关键词	profound track forecast improvements conditions tropical cyclone adaptive observations conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations
ISSN号	0035-9009
通讯作者	Duan, WS
中文摘要	To determine whether profound improvements in tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting are achievable by deploying dropwindsondes according to conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) sensitivity, observing system simulated experiments (OSSEs) were conducted on 20 TCs that developed over the western North Pacific during 2010 using Mesoscale Model 5 and its 3DVar assimilation system. Of the 20 cases, 13 showed neutral or improved track forecasts of between 0% and 51.2%. Eliminating initial errors within the CNOP pattern, which are related to either the storm directly or the surrounding regimes indirectly, reduced the subsequent track forecast errors. The remaining 7 TCs showed deterioration in the accuracy of the track forecasts over the 48 h forecast period. Accurate forecasts made without adaptive observations, a low sensitivity of forecast errors to initial errors, or major forecast errors associated with regimes other than the TC, can lead to a decline in the accuracy of TC track forecasts. Following analysis of the potential causes of inaccuracy in the track forecasts, we find that TC cases with profound positive effects on track forecasts often satisfy the following four conditions: (i) an inaccurate initial forecast without additional observation data; (ii) proper sensitivity of the forecast errors to the initial errors; (iii) a large proportion of the forecast errors fall within the verification region; and (iv) the TC system is the dominant regime in the verification region at verification time. Seven TCs satisfied these four conditions, and showed a mean reduction of 28.75% in track forecast errors over periods of 12-48 h. This result suggests that the TC cases satisfying these four conditions often show profound improvements on track forecast by dropwindsondes guided by CNOP sensitivity.
英文摘要	To determine whether profound improvements in tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting are achievable by deploying dropwindsondes according to conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) sensitivity, observing system simulated experiments (OSSEs) were conducted on 20 TCs that developed over the western North Pacific during 2010 using Mesoscale Model 5 and its 3DVar assimilation system. Of the 20 cases, 13 showed neutral or improved track forecasts of between 0% and 51.2%. Eliminating initial errors within the CNOP pattern, which are related to either the storm directly or the surrounding regimes indirectly, reduced the subsequent track forecast errors. The remaining 7 TCs showed deterioration in the accuracy of the track forecasts over the 48 h forecast period. Accurate forecasts made without adaptive observations, a low sensitivity of forecast errors to initial errors, or major forecast errors associated with regimes other than the TC, can lead to a decline in the accuracy of TC track forecasts.
学科主题	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS标题词	Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences
类目[WOS]	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
研究领域[WOS]	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
关键词[WOS]	NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS ; HURRICANE SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE ; EL-NINO EVENTS ; TARGETED OBSERVATIONS ; SINGULAR VECTORS ; IMPACT ; MODEL ; FORECASTS ; WEATHER ; PREDICTION
收录类别	SCI
原文出处	10.1002/qj.2109
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000324390000011
公开日期	2014-07-17
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/16395]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qin, Xiaohao,Duan, Wansuo,Mu, Mu. Conditions under which CNOP sensitivity is valid for tropical cyclone adaptive observations[J]. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY,2013,139(675):1544-1554.
APA	Qin, Xiaohao,Duan, Wansuo,&Mu, Mu.(2013).Conditions under which CNOP sensitivity is valid for tropical cyclone adaptive observations.QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY,139(675),1544-1554.
MLA	Qin, Xiaohao,et al."Conditions under which CNOP sensitivity is valid for tropical cyclone adaptive observations".QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 139.675(2013):1544-1554.