On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting

	On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting
	Li HJ(李汇军) ; Wei FS(魏奉思) ; Feng XS(冯学尚) ; Xie YQ(谢艳琼)
刊名	Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics
	2008
卷号	113 期号:A9 页码:A09101
关键词	coronal mass ejections geomagnetic disturbances prediction method arrival-time isf method solar heliosphere evolution storms waves
ISSN号	0148-0227
通讯作者	北京8701信箱
英文摘要	This paper investigates methods to improve the predictions of Shock Arrival Time (SAT) of the original Shock Propagation Model (SPM). According to the classical blast wave theory adopted in the SPM, the shock propagating speed is determined by the total energy of the original explosion together with the background solar wind speed. Noting that there exists an intrinsic limit to the transit times computed by the SPM predictions for a specified ambient solar wind, we present a statistical analysis on the forecasting capability of the SPM using this intrinsic property. Two facts about SPM are found: (1) the error in shock energy estimation is not the only cause of the prediction errors and we should not expect that the accuracy of SPM to be improved drastically by an exact shock energy input; and (2) there are systematic differences in prediction results both for the strong shocks propagating into a slow ambient solar wind and for the weak shocks into a fast medium. Statistical analyses indicate the physical details of shock propagation and thus clearly point out directions of the future improvement of the SPM. A simple modification is presented here, which shows that there is room for improvement of SPM and thus that the original SPM is worthy of further development.
学科主题	空间物理
收录类别	SCI
原文出处	http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008JA013167.shtml
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.cssar.ac.cn/handle/122/1121]
专题	国家空间科学中心_空间科学部
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li HJ,Wei FS,Feng XS,et al. On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,2008,113(A9):A09101.
APA	李汇军,魏奉思,冯学尚,&谢艳琼.(2008).On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting.Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,113(A9),A09101.
MLA	李汇军,et al."On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting".Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics 113.A9(2008):A09101.