An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one-dimensional CESE-HD solar wind model | |
Feng XS(冯学尚) ; Zhang,Y. ; Yang, L. P. ; Wu, S. T. ; Dryer,M. | |
刊名 | Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics |
2009 | |
卷号 | 114页码:A10103 |
关键词 | coronal mass ejections solution element method interplanetary shock conservation element euler equations 1 au mhd disturbances propagation earth |
ISSN号 | 0148-0227 |
通讯作者 | 北京8701信箱 |
英文摘要 | With the purpose of operational real-time forecasting for arrival times of flare/coronal mass ejection associated shocks in the vicinity of the Earth, a one-dimensional hydrodynamic (HD) shock propagation model is established by a novel numerical scheme, the space-time conservation element and solution element (CESE) method. The required observational data inputs to this new one-dimensional CESE-HD model are the low coronal radio Type II drift speed, the duration estimation, and the background solar wind speed for a solar eruptive event. Applying this model to 137 solar events during the period of February 1997 to August 2002, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM, HAFv. 2, and SPM models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other four models for the same set of events. These results may demonstrate the potential capability of our model in terms of improving real-time forecasting because the CESE method can be extended to three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics (3D-MHD) from the solar photosphere to any heliospheric position. |
学科主题 | 空间物理 |
收录类别 | SCI |
原文出处 | http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009JA014385.shtml |
语种 | 英语 |
内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
源URL | [http://ir.cssar.ac.cn/handle/122/973] |
专题 | 国家空间科学中心_空间科学部 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Feng XS,Zhang,Y.,Yang, L. P.,et al. An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one-dimensional CESE-HD solar wind model[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,2009,114:A10103. |
APA | 冯学尚,Zhang,Y.,Yang, L. P.,Wu, S. T.,&Dryer,M..(2009).An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one-dimensional CESE-HD solar wind model.Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,114,A10103. |
MLA | 冯学尚,et al."An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one-dimensional CESE-HD solar wind model".Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics 114(2009):A10103. |
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