| 题名 | 气候变化下的泥石流输沙特征及其演变趋势分析—以长江上游小江流域蒋家沟泥石流为例 |
| 作者 | 田冰 |
| 学位类别 | 博士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2008 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
| 授予地点 | 成都 |
| 导师 | 王裕宜 |
| 关键词 | 小江流域 气候变化 泥石流 输沙量 趋势分析 |
| 其他题名 | Research on transporting sediment feature and evolution trend of debris flows under climate change—A case study of Jiangjia Gully in Xiaojiang River Basin in the upper reach of Yangtze River |
| 学位专业 | 自然地理学 |
| 中文摘要 | 小江流域是长江上游金沙江下游的一级支流，泥石流是该流域频发的主要自然灾害，对山区人们的人身安全和经济发展带来了严重危害。20世纪90年代以来，在以全球气温变暖为主要特征的气候变化背景下，各类极端气候事件频频发生，全球气象灾害明显增多，该流域的泥石流灾害也表现为高发态势。本文以泥石流灾害典型区域长江上游小江流域为研究对象，根据该流域1961-2005年的气象资料，运用Mann-Kendall非参数统计、滑动平均、累积距平等方法系统分析流域气候变化趋势及其突变；用蒋家沟暴雨泥石流输沙的时序资料，结合野外实地测量、GIS等技术，分析泥石流输沙年际变化特点与演变规律，并利用非线性回归方法对未来气候变化情景下的泥石流输沙趋势进行预测，初步探讨该区域泥石流活动对于气候变化的响应，并提出相应的对策和建议。通过研究主要得到以下结论：（1）1961~2005年间小江流域气候变化的主要表现在：a）年均温在1970~2005年间表现为明显上升的趋势，平均上升率为0.17℃/10a；春夏秋冬各季节温度也表现出不同程度的上升，其中秋冬两季对全年温度增加的贡献最大，通过了95%的置信度检验，这与国际上全球气候变化研究中冬季升温的结论一致；b）年降水在1961~2002年间呈现出增加态势，其中20世纪90年代是降水最多的10年，这与该流域20世纪90年代泥石流频发的情况相一致；c）采用Mann-Kendall突变检验法、信噪比法和滑动t检验相结合的方法对气候因子进行趋势突变性检验，表明年气温在1998~2001年出现了突变式增温，秋冬季节尤其显著；年降水在1994年出现了突变式增长，而夏季降水在1996年出现突变式增长，表明流域在20世纪90年代出现暖湿气候；d）会泽站1961~2002年间年极端降水量（日降水量≥13.6mm），表现为显著增加态势，以1994年为突变点，增加趋势极为显著，而极端降水事件频率和强度也都表现出增加趋势。（2）1982~2004年间蒋家沟流域年均降水呈现为增加趋势，其年增长率为12.1mm/a，其中20世纪90年代降水最多，达到700.26mm；而各季节降水也均表现为不同程度的增加，其中夏季降水增加趋势明显；年降水和季节降水突变性检验表明，不论是年降水还是季节降水在1991~1993年均出现了增加突变。（3）1965~2000年间，蒋家沟泥石流输沙量表现为增加的趋势，1990s的输沙量是最大的十年，在进入21世纪后，输沙量表现出减少趋势；采用功率谱方法对该流域泥石流输沙的准周期性进行了研究，结果显示，蒋家沟流域泥石流存在5~7年的准周期性，它主要受控于该流域降水和滑坡活动的周期性；根据2006和2007年的5次实地测量数据，分析了观测站附近泥石流流通区的冲淤状况，结果表明：2006-2007两年间，在该测量区域内泥石流以淤积为主，淤积量近90×104m3。2001年后，流域输沙量大幅减少，主要与进入21世纪来，流域降水偏少、流通区回淤地形变化、以及2001年后在下游兴建防治工程有关。（4）本文采用相关分析的方法探讨了蒋家沟泥石流活动对区域气候因素变化的响应，结果表明：蒋家沟泥石流输沙量与年降水量的正相关性最好，通过了α=0.01的置信度检验，随着降水量的增加，输沙量表现为增加的趋势；与夏季气温则表现为负相关关系，随着夏季气温的增加，输沙量呈现减少的趋势。在对泥石流输沙量的影响中，降水因素是主要因素，气温则是轻微影响前期土壤含水量的一个气候因素而已。（5）本文根据前人的研究成果，提出小江流域未来气候变化的假定情景，并根据所建立的非线性预测模型，对此情景下的泥石流输沙量进行了预测分析。结果表明，在假定气候变化情景下，蒋家沟流域泥石流输沙量表现为增加的态势，降水增加10%~20%，泥石流输沙量会增加20~60%，并针对该流域泥石流输沙量在全球气候变化背景下增加的情况，提出了相应的对策和建议。在本项研究中，主要有以下几个方面的创新思路：（1）系统分析了小江流域、蒋家沟流域40余年来的气候变化趋势、突变以及周期变化，初步探讨了该流域气候变化规律和趋势。（2）系统分析了蒋家沟流域泥石流输沙的周期变化特点与趋势，以及对气候变化的响应过程，初步揭示了暴雨泥石流与气候变化的响应关系。（3）采用野外实地测量与GIS技术相结合的方法，对泥石流的输沙冲淤与流通区地形变化状况进行分析，探讨了近几年在降水减少情况下泥石流输沙冲淤变化的特点。（4）本文根据前人的研究成果，提出小江流域未来气候变化的假定情景下的泥石流输沙量非线性预测模型。 |
| 英文摘要 | Xiaojiang River is the first class branch of lower reach of Jinshajiang River in the upper reach of Yangtze River. The debris flow disaster is a general natural hazard in this catchment, which endangering the human security and economic development in mountainous region. Since the 1990s, extreme weather events frequently have occurred, global weather disasters increased dramatically, and the debris flow disaster in this cathment also have showed a highly frequent trend under the circumstance of global warming as the main feature of the context of climate change. Xiaojiang River, which is a branch of Yangtze River Basin and represents a typical debris flow disaster area, is chosen as our study object. Based on the meteorological data ranging from 1961 to 2005, the trend of climate change and its variation was systematically analyzed using the methods of Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistics and moving average. In the dissertation the interannual variance characteristics and evolution law of sediment transport of debris flow are analysed and its trend under future climate change is predicted by using non-linear regression equation according to the sequential data on sediment transport of Jiangjia Gully debris flow and field survey and measurement and GIS technique. Finally, we preliminarily discussed the response of debris flow on climate change, and proposed evolution trend, strategies, and suggestion of debris flow sediment transport under the supposition of climate change in future. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Climate change in Xiaojiang River from 1961 to 2005 manifested: a) the annual mean temperature from 1970 to 2005 indicated an obvious increasing tendency, with a mean rate of 0.17℃/10a, through the analysis of M-K trend testing it exhibited significant increase. Still, the temperature of four seasons all presented increasing trend more or less. Respectively, the temperature in autumn and winter contributed most to that of the whole year, passing through 95% confidence testing simultaneously. The result about increasing temperature in winter was accordance with that of the climate change research worldwide. b) Through MK trend testing, it was noted that the annual precipitation has a significantly increasing tendency from 1961 to 2002, while the most precipitation were observed during 1990s, which was coincided with the debris flow disaster. c) After trend mutagenicity testing on climatic factor in Xiaojing catchment combining with Mann-Kendall, signal-to-noise ratio, moving T testing, the annual temperature present radical gain, with conspicuous change encountering in autumn and winter; the radical increase of annual rainfall in 1994 and summer rainfall in 1996 manifested Xiaojiang catchment witnessed warm and humid temperate in 1990s. d) The extreme precipitation during 1961 to 2002 suggested an obvious increase in Xiaojiang catchment, with a turning point occurred in 1994, at the same time, the frequency and intensity indicated an increasing trend as well. (2) From 1982 to 2004, the precipitation trend in Jiangjia Gully is increased, with an increasing rate of 12.1mm/a, of which the most precipitation about 700.26 mm occurred in 1990s; the precipitation in four seasons all presented increasing trend more or less, autumn encountered the most obvious trend. Whenever it came to annual precipitation of seasonal precipitation, it indeed showed increased mutagenicity after testing. (3) The sediment transport of debris flow increased greatly overall during 1965 to 2000, the most sediment transport happened in 1990s and from 2001 to 2007, the sediment transport decrease. The results showed that debris flow in Jiangjia Gully had a characteristic of 5-7 year quasi-periodicity, which was controlled by the periodicity of precipitation and landslide activities through quasi-periodicity research on sediment transport by using power spectral analysis. According to 5 times field investigation data in 2006 and 2007, we analyzed the erosion and deposition of flow section of the debris flow around observation station. Results suggested the amount of erosion and deposition accounted for 90×104m3. The magnificent decrease of sediment transport after 2001 was related to the scarce rainfall and topographic change of flow section. (4) This paper discussed the debris flow activity of Jiangjia Gully in response to regional climatic factor change using the correlation analysis. The convincing result included that the correlation between the sediment transport of debris flow and annual precipitation was highest for passed the confidence testing of α=0.01, and the correlation was the second for the precipitation in summer. With the increase of precipitation and extreme precipitation, sediment transport manifested increasing tendency, however, they presented a negative correlation with summer temperature. Accompanying the increase in summer temperature, the sediment exhibited an opposite trend. Noticeably, precipitation took more important part than temperature during the analysis of contributing factors. (5) Based on the previous studies, the paper proposed supposed condition under future climatic change in Xiaojiang River, analyzed and predicted the sediment transport of debris flow according to the established non-linear prediction model. The results showed that the sediment transport showed an increasing tendency with an increase of 10%-20% precipitation and 20%-60% sediment transport under the circumstance of supposed future climatic change in Jiangjia Gully. Finally, we bring forward relevant advice and suggestion considering the increase of sediment transport under global warming. Several innovations of this paper are as following: (1) The climate change and abruption trend in Xiaojiang River and Jiangjia Gully from 1961 to 2005 are analysed in this paper. (2) The quasi-periodicity and change trend of sediment transport of debris flow in Jiangjia Gully are discussed. And the debris flow activity in response to regional climatic factor change is analyzed in detail in this paper. (3) This paper discusses the sediment transporting and topography change of flow section using field measurement and GIS technique. And the debris flow erosion and deposition of flow section is analyzed under the scarce precipitation between 2006 and 2007. (4) Based on the previous studies, the paper proposed supposed condition under future climatic change in Xiaojiang River, analyzed and predicted the sediment transport of debris flow according to the established non-linear prediction model. |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 公开日期 | 2010-10-14 |
| 分类号 | X1;P64 |
| 内容类型 | 学位论文 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/2198]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前） |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 田冰. 气候变化下的泥石流输沙特征及其演变趋势分析—以长江上游小江流域蒋家沟泥石流为例[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2008. |
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