草地退化系统预测与畜种结构调整分析——以西藏聂荣县为例

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	草地退化系统预测与畜种结构调整分析——以西藏聂荣县为例
	方一平; 刘淑珍; 周麟; 张建平
刊名	山地学报
	1999
卷号	17 期号:4 页码:375-379
关键词	草地畜牧系统草地退化关联分析畜种结构调整
ISSN号	1008-2786
其他题名	ON SYSTEM FORECAST OF GRASSLAND DETERIORATION AND LIVESTOCK STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT IN NIE RONG COUNTY OF TIBET AUTONOMOUS REGION
通讯作者	方一平
合作状况	其它
中文摘要	利用灰色关联方法对聂荣县草地发展的相关因子进行了系统关联分析，得出由牧业人口和载畜量为主的人为因素是影响该县草地退化，沙化的最强因子，利用灰色系统预测方法对草爱化与强关联因素进行１０年的中期预报，并对牧业人口与牲畜结构进行了方案优化与比较。
英文摘要	This paper analyses related factors which influence on grassland development in the light of grey related methods,it draws out the conclusinon that population and livestock total contribute mainly to grassland deterioration in Nie Rong County, at the same time,the paper sets about the mid_term(1996～2000)forecast of grassland deterioration and related factors by grey system forecast appproaches:(1) The forecast conclusion based on upper limited model:the deterrioration areas of grassland will increase by 17 percent from 1995 to 2000,the areas of deterioration will go up by 13 percent compared to 25 percent from 1995 to 2005,the average growth rate of grassland deterioration is 2.2 percent a year in decade, the total of cattle will raise by 0.4 percent while the total of horse decrease by 0.67 percent a year;(3) the forecast results based on lower limited model: the areas of grassland deterioration will raise 18 percent from 1995 to 2005,the average growth rate is 1.7 percent. At last, the schemes of adjustment in livestock structure are put forth,which cover three schemes: schemes I, the total of livestock is 0.538 million sheep units if the area of grassland deterioration is not beyond 0.398 million hectares, in schemes Ⅱ and schemes Ⅲ,the total of livestock are 0.546 and 0.555 million sheep units while the area of grassland deterioration are not beyond 0.411 million hectares and 0.428 million hectares. On the other hand, the author thinks that the key to reduce the area of grassland deterioration is to prevent population and the total of livestock from increasing and overdeveloping in grassland resource.
学科主题	S812.5
分类号	S812.5
收录类别	CSCD ; 北大中文核心
语种	中文
CSCD记录号	CSCD:733066
公开日期	2010-08-10
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/1338]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前）成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山区发展研究中心中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
作者单位	中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	方一平,刘淑珍,周麟,等. 草地退化系统预测与畜种结构调整分析——以西藏聂荣县为例[J]. 山地学报,1999,17(4):375-379.
APA	方一平,刘淑珍,周麟,&张建平.(1999).草地退化系统预测与畜种结构调整分析——以西藏聂荣县为例.山地学报,17(4),375-379.
MLA	方一平,et al."草地退化系统预测与畜种结构调整分析——以西藏聂荣县为例".山地学报 17.4(1999):375-379.