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题名	汶川地震灾区泥石流发展趋势研究
作者	徐爱淞
学位类别	博士
答辩日期	2011-05-24
授予单位	中国科学院研究生院
授予地点	北京
导师	韦方强
关键词	泥石流 汶川地震 临界雨量 灰色预测 发展趋势
其他题名	Study on Debris Flow’s Developing Trend in Wenchuan Earthquake-stricken Area
学位专业	岩土工程
中文摘要	汶川大地震不但在灾区直接造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失，同时还诱发了大量的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害，并对坡面岩土体的完整性造成了一定破坏。大量崩塌滑坡的发生和坡面岩体的进一步破碎导致地震灾区泥石流进入一个活跃期。在这个活跃期内泥石流的发展趋势和活动过程将对震后泥石流防灾减灾具有重要的影响。本文通过对地震灾区不同地震烈度区（Ⅷ-Ⅺ度）典型泥石流沟形成条件的变化的调查、实验和分析，研究震前震后诱发泥石流的临界降水量变化，并得出临界日降雨与24小时设计暴雨特征值及相对高差相关的关系，在此基础上构造了新因子 /h（24小时设计暴雨特征值与泥石流沟相对高差的比值），并拟合了震后泥石流爆发的当日降雨与新因子的函数方程：y=1.161+e37.399x，拟合度较好。同时通过对地震灾区历史气象资料的分析，利用灾变预测和时间尺度预测方法预测未来的降水条件，得出了研究区降水以六年为周期循环变化的规律，利用滑动平均方法得出研究区降水有缓慢增大的趋势，进而结合泥石流临界降水量变化和物源量变化,计算泥石流不同设计频率的流量、过流总量和一次固体物质冲出量等水文参数，预测泥石流发展趋势和活动特征，对震后泥石流发展趋势进行评估。
英文摘要	Other than directly bring about enormous casualties and heavy property losses, Wenchuan earthquake induced a large amount of secondary disasters such as landslip, landslide and debris flow, and damage the integrality of rock mass and soil mass on slope to some degree. Result from mass landslip and landslide’s breaking out as well as rock mass’s further crashing, the earthquake-stricken area has entered into an active stage. No doubt that the developing trend and activities course in the stage will affect debris flow’s mitigation after earthquake a lot. According to many investigation experiment and analysis on typical debris flow’s forming conditions, this article will study change in critical rainfall initiating debris flows between before earthquake and after earthquake, thus find a connection between critical daily rainfall and relative height as well as 24 hours’ design storm’s eigenvalue. On the basis of that , we made a new factor /h , which is the ratio of 24 hours’ design storm’s eigenvalue to relative altitude , and fit a new function , y=1.161+e37.399x . The result fits the function very well. At the same time by means of analyzing earthquake-stricken area’s historical rainfall data, we evaluated debris flows’ developing trend of different seismic intensity zone, finding that it follows a cycle of about six years. Meanwhile, we use moving average smoothing method to reach a conclusion that rainfall in the research area grows up slowly. Then we combined them with change in debris flow’s critical rainfall and solid substance’s amount，and calculate debris flow’s runoff, total runoff and amount of solid substance at a time of different designed frequencies, predicting the developing trend and activities’ characters of debris flow.
语种	中文
公开日期	2013-01-25
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://192.168.143.20:8080/handle/131551/4845]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	徐爱淞. 汶川地震灾区泥石流发展趋势研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院. 2011.

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