Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas

doi:10.1007/s12036-024-09999-3

	Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas
	Zhang, Rui 3,4,5; Chen, Yan-Qing 4,5; Zeng, Shu-Guang 4,5; Zheng, Sheng 4,5; Xiao, Yan-Shan 4,5; Deng LH(邓林华)1,2; Zeng, Xiang-Yun 4,5; Huang, Yao 4,5
刊名	JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY
	2024-05-03
卷号	45 期号:1
关键词	Sun: activity methods: data analysis sunspots
ISSN号	0250-6335
DOI	10.1007/s12036-024-09999-3
产权排序	第5完成单位
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Solar activity, such as sunspots and flares, has a great impact on humans, living beings, and technologies in the whole world. Changes in sunspots will influence high-frequency and space-navigation radio communications. Based on the full-disk, southern and northern hemispheres sunspot areas (SAs) data in 1874-2023 from the Royal Observatory, Greenwich (RGO) USAF/NOAA, extreme value theory (EVT) is applied to predict the trend of the 25th and 26th solar cycles (SCs) in this work. Two methods with EVT, the block maxima (BM) approach and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach, are employed to research solar extreme events. The former method focuses on each block's maximum sunspot areas value and is applied for the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The latter method aims to select the extreme values exceeding a threshold value and is used to obtain the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. It is the first time that the EVT is applied on the sunspot areas data from the Royal Observatory, Greenwich (RGO) USAF/NOAA. The analysis indicates that the estimated 8-year return levels for sunspot areas are 5701 and 6258 using the two methods, while the estimated 19-year return levels are all 7165. This suggests that the trends of the 25th and 26th solar cycles will be stronger than that of the 24th solar cycle.
学科主题	天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系
URL标识	查看原文
出版地	C V RAMAN AVENUE, SADASHIVANAGAR, P B #8005, BANGALORE 560 080, INDIA
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[U2031202]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12203029]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11873089]; Yunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Science[YNSPCC202208]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007]; The 'Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program' Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012]
WOS关键词	SOLAR-CYCLE ; MAGNETIC-FIELD ; PREDICTION ; NUMBER ; AMPLITUDE ; ROTATION ; MODELS ; SERIES
WOS研究方向	Astronomy & Astrophysics
语种	英语
出版者	INDIAN ACAD SCIENCES
WOS记录号	WOS:001216112900001
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China[U2031202, 12203029, 11873089] ; Yunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Science[YNSPCC202208] ; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007] ; The 'Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program' Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012]
内容类型	期刊论文
版本	出版稿
源URL	[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/27177]
专题	云南天文台_抚仙湖太阳观测站
作者单位	1.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, 650216, People’s Republic of China 2.School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming, 650504, People’s Republic of China; 3.Yunnan Key Laboratory of the Solar Physics and Space Science, Kunming, 650216, People’s Republic of China; 4.College of Science, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, People’s Republic of China; 5.Center of Astronomy and Space Sciences, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, People’s Republic of China;
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Rui,Chen, Yan-Qing,Zeng, Shu-Guang,et al. Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas[J]. JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY,2024,45(1).
APA	Zhang, Rui.,Chen, Yan-Qing.,Zeng, Shu-Guang.,Zheng, Sheng.,Xiao, Yan-Shan.,...&Huang, Yao.(2024).Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas.JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY,45(1).
MLA	Zhang, Rui,et al."Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas".JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY 45.1(2024).