海岸带土地利用变化多情景模拟——以山东海岸带为例

CORC > 烟台海岸带研究所 > 中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所 > 中科院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室

	海岸带土地利用变化多情景模拟——以山东海岸带为例
	宋百媛 1,2,3,4; 侯西勇 1,3,4; 王晓利 1,3,4; 刘玉斌 1,2,3,4
刊名	海洋科学
	2022
卷号	46 期号:1 页码:22-33
关键词	土地利用情景分析系统动力学海岸带
ISSN号	1000-3096
其他题名	Multi-scenario simulation of land use change in coastal zones -A case study of Shandong coastal zone
文献子类	期刊论文
英文摘要	Long-term series scenario to simulate coastal land use have important guiding significance for integrated coastal management and sustainable development. Based on three scenarios, namely, SSP1-RCP2.6 (A-Sustainability Path), SSP2-RCP4.5 (B-Middle of the Economic and Social Development Path), and SSP3-RCP4.5 (C-Inverse Globalization of Regional Rivalry Path, a system dynamics (SD) model of land use demand in the coastal zone of Shandong province to 2100 was established. The FLUS model is then used to simulate the recent (2030), medium (2050), and long-term (2100) land use spatial distribution. Results show the following: (1) scenario A has a small population, a high level of urbanization, and a high level of economic development. Meanwhile, scenario B has a moderate development trend of various factors, and scenario C has a large population, a low level of urbanization, and a low level of economic development. (2) By 2100, the demand area change curves of different regions show significant situational differences and type differences. Scenario A is less dependent on land resources for economic and social development. The area demand of the main ground class in scenario B is at a medium level in three scenarios. In scenario C, economic and social development has a prominent demand for land for living and production, and the area of the construction land has a strong growth trend. (3) By 2100, there are significant differences in land use patterns and processes among the three scenarios. Scenario A tends to have a centralized distribution. The construction land will continue to expand in the near- and medium-term, but coastal wetlands can be effectively protected. For scenario B, the expansion of the construction land, the constructed wetland, and the shrinking trend of forest and grassland in the coastal zone are significant. Scenario C has the most significant expansion of the construction land. The constructed wetland and cultivated land tend to expand to the sea, while the coastal wetland shrinks significantly. Research results can provide scientific support for coastal zone management to make long-term strategic decisions.
语种	中文
CSCD记录号	CSCD:7149714
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/34125]
专题	烟台海岸带研究所_中科院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室
作者单位	1.中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所,山东烟台264003; 2.中国科学院大学,北京100049; 3.中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室,山东烟台264003; 4.山东省海岸带环境过程重点实验室,中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所,山东烟台264003
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	宋百媛,侯西勇,王晓利,等. 海岸带土地利用变化多情景模拟——以山东海岸带为例[J]. 海洋科学,2022,46(1):22-33.
APA	宋百媛,侯西勇,王晓利,&刘玉斌.(2022).海岸带土地利用变化多情景模拟——以山东海岸带为例.海洋科学,46(1),22-33.
MLA	宋百媛,et al."海岸带土地利用变化多情景模拟——以山东海岸带为例".海洋科学 46.1(2022):22-33.