西北太平洋热带气旋路径的历史模拟

CORC > 烟台海岸带研究所 > 中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所 > 中科院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室

	西北太平洋热带气旋路径的历史模拟
	郑倩 1,2; 孙艺迪 1,2,3; 高猛 1,4
刊名	大气科学学报
	2021
卷号	44 期号:6 页码:862-874
关键词	西北太平洋热带气旋历史模拟路径强度
ISSN号	1674-7097
其他题名	Historical simulation of tropical cyclone tracks in Northwest Pacific
文献子类	期刊论文
英文摘要	Northwest Pacific is the most active area for tropical cyclones(TCs).Intensified TCs usually cause natural disasters, leading to tremendous losses in life and property.Statistical analyses of the historical records of tropical cyclones are crucial to the risk assessment of TCs.However,current historical records of TCs are out of the requirement of a refined risk assessment in coastal area.In this study, the climatic properties (including annual frequency, location,path movement and intensity change,etc.) of TCs derived from the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship(IBTrACS) database have been analyzed,and a synthetic model of the TC tracks over Northwest Pacific has been developed.The model includes four parts: genesis model,movement model, lysis model and intensity model.The model is evaluated by comparing an ensemble of simulations to the historical records from the perspective of spatial track density,annual landfall rate and frequency distribution of maximum landfall wind speed.Results show that the model performs well according to a few of diagnostics,and the simulations and observations are statistically indistinguishable. Therefore, the model can be used to generate synthetic tropical cyclones for a refined risk assessment of TCs over Northwest Pacific,and can improve the reliability of cyclone risk disaster assessment.
语种	中文
CSCD记录号	CSCD:7129488
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/34095]
专题	烟台海岸带研究所_中科院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室
作者单位	1.中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所/海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室,山东烟台264003; 2.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049; 3.南京信息工程大学海洋科学学院,江苏南京210044; 4.烟台大学数学与信息科学学院,山东烟台264005
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	郑倩,孙艺迪,高猛. 西北太平洋热带气旋路径的历史模拟[J]. 大气科学学报,2021,44(6):862-874.
APA	郑倩,孙艺迪,&高猛.(2021).西北太平洋热带气旋路径的历史模拟.大气科学学报,44(6),862-874.
MLA	郑倩,et al."西北太平洋热带气旋路径的历史模拟".大气科学学报 44.6(2021):862-874.