Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming

doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06236-9

CORC > 海洋研究所 > 中国科学院海洋研究所 > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming
	Geng, Tao 1,2,7; Jia, Fan 3,7; Cai, Wenju 1,2,4,5; Wu, Lixin 1,2,7; Gan, Bolan 1,2; Jing, Zhao 1,2,7; Li, Shujun 1,2; McPhaden, Michael J.6
刊名	NATURE
	2023-07-27
卷号	619 期号:7971 页码:774-+
ISSN号	0028-0836
DOI	10.1038/s41586-023-06236-9
通讯作者	Jia, Fan(jiafan@qdio.ac.cn) ; Cai, Wenju(wenju.cai@csiro.au)
英文摘要	Most El Nino events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter(1-3), whereas La Nina tends to develop after an El Nino and last for two years or longer(4-7). Relative to single-year La Nina, consecutive La Nina features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific(6,7), enabling the cold anomalies to persist, exerting prolonged impacts on global climate, ecosystems and agriculture(8-13). Future changes to multi-year-long La Nina events remain unknown. Here, using climate models under future greenhouse-gas forcings(14), we find an increased frequency of consecutive La Nina ranging from 19 +/- 11% in a low-emission scenario to 33 +/- 13% in a high-emission scenario, supported by an inter-model consensus stronger in higher-emission scenarios. Under greenhouse warming, a mean-state warming maximum in the subtropical northeastern Pacific enhances the regional thermodynamic response to perturbations, generating anomalous easterlies that are further northward than in the twentieth century in response to El Nino warm anomalies. The sensitivity of the northward-broadened anomaly pattern is further increased by a warming maximum in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The slower heat recharge associated with the northward-broadened easterly anomalies facilitates the cold anomalies of the first-year La Nina to persist into a second-year La Nina. Thus, climate extremes as seen during historical consecutive La Nina episodes probably occur more frequently in the twenty-first century.
资助项目	Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202203300] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB 40030000] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[42206209] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[42276006] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[2021205] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[LSKJ202202602] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[5457] ; China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents[BX20220279] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2020YFA0608801] ; NSFC[LSKJ202202402] ; NSFC[42276016] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences[42276016] ; Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)[92058203] ; [41876008] ; [42006173]
WOS关键词	SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EL-NINO ; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ; ENSO ; PACIFIC ; VARIABILITY ; MODEL ; AMPLITUDE ; DURATION ; IMPACT
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	NATURE PORTFOLIO
WOS记录号	WOS:001038658500019
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/182696]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Jia, Fan; Cai, Wenju
作者单位	1.Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian, Peoples R China 5.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Ctr Southern Hemisphere Oceans Res CSHOR, Hobart, Tas, Australia 6.NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, Seattle, WA USA 7.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Geng, Tao,Jia, Fan,Cai, Wenju,et al. Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming[J]. NATURE,2023,619(7971):774-+.
APA	Geng, Tao.,Jia, Fan.,Cai, Wenju.,Wu, Lixin.,Gan, Bolan.,...&McPhaden, Michael J..(2023).Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming.NATURE,619(7971),774-+.
MLA	Geng, Tao,et al."Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming".NATURE 619.7971(2023):774-+.