Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model

doi:10.1109/TASE.2021.3106782

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	Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model
	Luo, Tianyi 1,3; Cao, Zhidong 3; Wang, Yuejiao 1,3; Zeng, Daniel 3; Zhang, Qingpeng 2
刊名	IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
	2021-09-02
页码	10
关键词	COVID-19 Epidemics Pandemics Sociology Market research Mathematical models Timing Risk management Statistics Asymptomatic patients COVID-19 epidemic rebound strategy evaluation transmission model
ISSN号	1545-5955
DOI	10.1109/TASE.2021.3106782
通讯作者	Cao, Zhidong(zhidong.cao@ia.ac.cn)
英文摘要	As part of ongoing efforts to contain the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, understanding the role of asymptomatic patients in the transmission system is essential for infection control. However, the optimal approach to risk assessment and management of asymptomatic cases remains unclear. This study proposed a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, No symptoms, Hospitalized and reported, Recovered, Death (SEINRHD) epidemic propagation model. The model was constructed based on epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in China and accounting for the heterogeneity of social contact networks. The early community outbreaks in Wuhan were reconstructed and fitted with the actual data. We used this model to assess epidemic control measures for asymptomatic cases in three dimensions. The impact of asymptomatic cases on epidemic propagation was examined based on the effective reproduction number, abnormally high transmission events, and type and structure of transmission. Management of asymptomatic cases can help flatten the infection curve. Tracing 75% of the asymptomatic cases corresponds to a 32.5% overall reduction in new cases (compared with tracing no asymptomatic cases). Regardless of population-wide measures, household transmission is higher than other types of transmission, accounting for an estimated 50% of all cases. The magnitude of tracing of asymptomatic cases is more important than the timing; when all symptomatic patients were traced, tested, and isolated in a timely manner, the overall epidemic was not sensitive to the time of implementing the measures to trace asymptomatic patients. Disease control and prevention within families should be emphasized during an epidemic.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[72042018] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91546112] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71621002] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72074209] ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation[L192012]
WOS研究方向	Automation & Control Systems
语种	英语
出版者	IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
WOS记录号	WOS:000732900200001
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/46887]
专题	自动化研究所_复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_互联网大数据与安全信息学研究中心
通讯作者	Cao, Zhidong
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Artificial Intelligence, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.City Univ Hong Kong, Sch Data Sci, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Luo, Tianyi,Cao, Zhidong,Wang, Yuejiao,et al. Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model[J]. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING,2021:10.
APA	Luo, Tianyi,Cao, Zhidong,Wang, Yuejiao,Zeng, Daniel,&Zhang, Qingpeng.(2021).Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model.IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING,10.
MLA	Luo, Tianyi,et al."Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model".IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING (2021):10.