Updating the models and uncertainty of mechanical parameters for rock tunnels using Bayesian inference

doi:10.1016/j.gsf.2021.101198

	Updating the models and uncertainty of mechanical parameters for rock tunnels using Bayesian inference
	Zhao, Hongbo 1,2; Chen, Bingrui 2; Li, Shaojun 2; Li, Zhen 3; Zhu, Changxing 3
刊名	GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS
	2021-09-01
卷号	12 期号:5 页码:13
关键词	Rock tunnel engineering Back analysis Bayesian inference Uncertainty analysis Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation
ISSN号	1674-9871
DOI	10.1016/j.gsf.2021.101198
英文摘要	Rock mechanical parameters and their uncertainties are critical to rock stability analysis, engineering design, and safe construction in rock mechanics and engineering. The back analysis is widely adopted in rock engineering to determine the mechanical parameters of the surrounding rock mass, but this does not consider the uncertainty. This problem is addressed here by the proposed approach by developing a system of Bayesian inferences for updating mechanical parameters and their statistical properties using monitored field data, then integrating the monitored data, prior knowledge of geotechnical parameters, and a mechanical model of a rock tunnel using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. The proposed approach is illustrated by a circular tunnel with an analytical solution, which was then applied to an experimental tunnel in Goupitan Hydropower Station, China. The mechanical properties and strength parameters of the surrounding rock mass were modeled as random variables. The displacement was predicted with the aid of the parameters updated by Bayesian inferences and agreed closely with monitored displacements. It indicates that Bayesian inferences combined the monitored data into the tunnel model to update its parameters dynamically. Further study indicated that the performance of Bayesian inferences is improved greatly by regularly supplementing field monitoring data. Bayesian inference is a significant and new approach for determining the mechanical parameters of the surrounding rock mass in a tunnel model and contributes to safe construction in rock engineering. (C) 2021 China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
资助项目	Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences[Z020006] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[U1765206] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51874119]
WOS研究方向	Geology
语种	英语
出版者	CHINA UNIV GEOSCIENCES, BEIJING
WOS记录号	WOS:000692319300018
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://119.78.100.198/handle/2S6PX9GI/27879]
专题	中科院武汉岩土力学所
通讯作者	Zhao, Hongbo
作者单位	1.Shandong Univ Technol, Sch Civil & Architectural Engn, Zibo 255000, Shandong, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Rock & Soil Mech, State Key Lab Geomech & Geotech Engn, Wuhan 430071, Hubei, Peoples R China 3.Henan Polytech Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Jiaozuo 454003, Henan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Hongbo,Chen, Bingrui,Li, Shaojun,et al. Updating the models and uncertainty of mechanical parameters for rock tunnels using Bayesian inference[J]. GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS,2021,12(5):13.
APA	Zhao, Hongbo,Chen, Bingrui,Li, Shaojun,Li, Zhen,&Zhu, Changxing.(2021).Updating the models and uncertainty of mechanical parameters for rock tunnels using Bayesian inference.GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS,12(5),13.
MLA	Zhao, Hongbo,et al."Updating the models and uncertainty of mechanical parameters for rock tunnels using Bayesian inference".GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS 12.5(2021):13.