Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China

doi:10.2166/wcc.2013.072

	Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China
	Zhu, Qiuan 1; Jiang, Hong 6; Peng, Changhui 1,5; Liu, Jinxun 4; Fang, Xiuqin 3; Chen, Huai 1; Liu, Shirong 2
刊名	JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
	2013
卷号	4 期号:3 页码:302-316
关键词	China climate change hydrological effects uncertainty water resource
ISSN号	2040-2244
DOI	10.2166/wcc.2013.072
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	The spatial and temporal variation and uncertainty of precipitation and runoff in China were compared and evaluated between historical and future periods under different climate change scenarios. The precipitation pattern is derived from observed and future projected precipitation data for historical and future periods, respectively. The runoff is derived from simulation results in historical and future periods using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forced with historical observed and global climate models (GCMs) future projected climate data, respectively. One GCM (CGCM3.1) under two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) was used for the future period simulations. The results indicated high uncertainties and variations in climate change effects on hydrological processes in China: precipitation and runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the future period but a decreasing trend in the historical period at the national level; the temporal variation and uncertainty of projected precipitation and runoff in the future period were predicted to be higher than those in the historical period; the levels of precipitation and runoff in the future period were higher than those in the historical period. The change in trends of precipitation and runoff are highly affected by different climate change scenarios. GCM structure and emission scenarios should be the major sources of uncertainty.
学科主题	Environment ; Ecology
URL标识	查看原文
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; TRANSFER SCHEME LSX ; GLOBAL LAND AREAS ; RIVER-BASIN ; YELLOW-RIVER ; HEADWATER CATCHMENT ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; FLOOD FREQUENCY ; CARBON BALANCE ; RUNOFF TRENDS
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	IWA PUBLISHING
WOS记录号	WOS:000323421500010
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://210.75.237.14/handle/351003/29834]
专题	成都生物研究所_生态研究
通讯作者	Zhu, Qiuan
作者单位	1.Northwest A&F Univ, Lab Ecol Forecasting & Global Change, Coll Forestry, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Forestry, Inst Forest Ecol & Environm, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China 3.Hohai Univ, Sch Earth Sci & Engn, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 4.Stinger Ghaffarian Technol SGT Inc, Sioux Falls, SD 57198 USA; 5.Univ Quebec, Inst Environm Sci, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada; 6.Nanjing Univ, Int Inst Earth Syst Sci, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Qiuan,Jiang, Hong,Peng, Changhui,et al. Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China[J]. JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,2013,4(3):302-316.
APA	Zhu, Qiuan.,Jiang, Hong.,Peng, Changhui.,Liu, Jinxun.,Fang, Xiuqin.,...&Liu, Shirong.(2013).Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,4(3),302-316.
MLA	Zhu, Qiuan,et al."Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 4.3(2013):302-316.