Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126643

	Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China
	Song, Zhihong 2,3; Xia, Jun 1,2,3; She, Dunxian 2,3; Li, Lingcheng 4; Hu, Chen 2,3; Hong, Si 2,3
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
	2021-10-01
卷号	601 页码:14
关键词	Meteorological drought events CMIP6 SPI Mainland China Climate change
ISSN号	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126643
通讯作者	Xia, Jun(xiaj@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; She, Dunxian(shedunxian@whu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Understanding drought dynamics spatially and temporally is essential for environmental and socio-economic systems, especially under climate change with expected increasing drought. This study aims to update the knowledge about drought spatiotemporal changes over mainland China in the 21st century by utilizing the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets. Precipitation from the nine CMIP6 models is first bias-corrected using a quantile mapping approach and then used to calculate the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the historical period and future three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We conduct a clustering algorithm to identify three-dimensional (i.e., latitude, longitude, and time) drought events to access the drought dynamics in both space and time. Results show that the drought events occur more frequently during June to September than the other months for both historical and future periods. The drought frequency is significantly increasing during Sep-Dec in the 21st century (increase by about 8.5%, p-value<0.05). Compared with the historical period, drought centers shift toward south under the future projections, indicating a relatively high drought frequency in south China. Additionally, drought events are projected to have shorter duration, smaller affected area, but higher intensity under all three scenarios. The study contributes to our comprehensive understanding of how future drought characteristics will change due to climate change from the perspective of spatiotemporal dynamics. These results are helpful to drought risk management and provide information for developing drought adaptation strategies.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41890823] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0402709] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[2042020kf0005]
WOS关键词	BIAS CORRECTION METHODS ; AREA-DURATION ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FUTURE CLIMATE ; HYDROLOGIC IMPACT ; SEVERITY INDEX ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; PRECIPITATION ; TRENDS ; SIMULATIONS
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000695816300059
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/165635]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Xia, Jun; She, Dunxian
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 10010, Peoples R China 2.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China 3.Wuhan Univ, Hubei Key Lab Water Syst Sci Sponge City Construc, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China 4.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Atmospher Sci & Global Change Div, Richland, WA 99354 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Song, Zhihong,Xia, Jun,She, Dunxian,et al. Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2021,601:14.
APA	Song, Zhihong,Xia, Jun,She, Dunxian,Li, Lingcheng,Hu, Chen,&Hong, Si.(2021).Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,601,14.
MLA	Song, Zhihong,et al."Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 601(2021):14.