Simulation of social resilience affected by extreme events in ancient China

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03134-9

	Simulation of social resilience affected by extreme events in ancient China
	He, Hongming 4,5; Delang, Claudio O.6; Zhou, Jie 1; Li, Yu 3; He, Wenming 2
刊名	CLIMATIC CHANGE
	2021-06-01
卷号	166 期号:3-4 页码:23
关键词	Extreme events Social resilience Cascade Catastrophe-Resilience Dynamic Model (CCRDM) Ancient China
ISSN号	0165-0009
DOI	10.1007/s10584-021-03134-9
通讯作者	He, Hongming(hongming.he@yahoo.com) ; Li, Yu(liyuljy@163.com) ; He, Wenming(hwmjim@163.com)
英文摘要	This study identifies historical extreme events and analyzes their impacts on social vulnerability, stability, and resilience in ancient China. We reconstructed extreme event sequences, simulated social resilience response using our proposed Cascade Catastrophe-Resilience Dynamic Model, and discussed interaction of social vulnerability and stability. We found the following conclusions. First, historical extreme events had cyclic and periodic fluctuations, and usually led to cascade disasters. Cascade disasters enhanced risk and greatly reduced societal stability, while three types of disaster chains were observed: climatic extremes (flood/drought)-famines-wars (uprising/invasions)-epidemic plagues; climatic extremes (flood/drought)-famines -migrations; and droughts-locust plagues-famines. A climate extreme-earthquake chain was also recorded although the mechanism remains unknown. Second, extreme events were synchronous with dynastic changes, although strong social resilience enhanced the opportunity for dynastic survival and modified the stochastic magnitude-frequency relationship between extreme events and social vulnerability. The high frequency of extreme events is consistent with high hazard indices, declining population, high levels of social vulnerability, and low levels of social stability and resilience. However, the strong correlation between high levels of social vulnerability and high frequency of extreme events occurred at the end of dynasties but not when dynasties were thriving. Third, quick response to disasters, efficient disaster relief systems, and sufficient food supplies were essential parts of social resilience to disasters. Extreme events play important roles in shaping agricultural production, and thus food supply. Population fluctuation and migration, economic center shifts, and social and economic structure changes contributed to cascade disasters, which often led to societal instability throughout Chinese history.
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RISK ; STRATEGIES ; DEPOSITS ; IMPACTS ; LESSONS ; LOESS ; RIVER
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000691294400002
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/165065]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	He, Hongming; Li, Yu; He, Wenming
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Branch, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China 2.Jiaying Univ, Sch Chem & Environm, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Conservat & Precis Utiliza, Meizhou 514015, Guangdong, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources, Beijing 101400, Peoples R China 4.East China Normal Univ, Fac Geosci, Sch Geog Sci, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci MOE, Shanghai, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Northwest Agr & Forestry, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 6.Hong Kong Baptist Univ, Fac Social Sci, Dept Geog, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	He, Hongming,Delang, Claudio O.,Zhou, Jie,et al. Simulation of social resilience affected by extreme events in ancient China[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2021,166(3-4):23.
APA	He, Hongming,Delang, Claudio O.,Zhou, Jie,Li, Yu,&He, Wenming.(2021).Simulation of social resilience affected by extreme events in ancient China.CLIMATIC CHANGE,166(3-4),23.
MLA	He, Hongming,et al."Simulation of social resilience affected by extreme events in ancient China".CLIMATIC CHANGE 166.3-4(2021):23.