A multi-perspective approach for selecting CMIP6 scenarios to project climate change impacts on glacio-hydrology with a case study in Upper Indus river basin

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126466

	A multi-perspective approach for selecting CMIP6 scenarios to project climate change impacts on glacio-hydrology with a case study in Upper Indus river basin
	Shafeeque, Muhammad 2,3; Luo, Yi 1,2,3
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
	2021-08-01
卷号	599 页码:16
关键词	CMIP6 Upper Indus basin Water-energy balance SSPs Turc-Budyko Glacio-hydrology
ISSN号	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126466
通讯作者	Luo, Yi(luoyi@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	The selection of future climate change scenarios may have issues in representing the full spectrum of climate projections in glacierized mountain regions, where glaciers play an important role in hydrology. Thus, the effect of glacier storage change must be considered in the selection approaches. Here, a multi-perspective approach was proposed to select climate models from CMIP6 database, considering the full spectrum of future climate change and effects of glaciers on hydrology. This approach combines the envelope-based approach (EA), past performance approach (PPA), and additional criteria to incorporate water-energy balance and glacier storage change based on the Turc-Budyko theory. The approach physically diagnoses GCMs by investigating their effects on glacier storage change compared to reference climate and observed mass balance data. A step-wise shortlisting and selection of appropriate climate models for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) was made under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, based on (a) range of projected changes in mean values for four extreme future projections (cold-dry, cold-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet), (b) range of projected changes in climatic extremes, (c) representation of water-energy balance and storage change, and (d) skill in representing historical climate. The future projections indicate temperature and precipitation increase by 1.7 +/- 0.6 degrees C and 7 +/- 5%, 3.3 +/- 1.3 degrees C and 10 +/- 6%, and 6.3 +/- 2.6 degrees C and 22 +/- 13% under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 in 2071-2100 compared to 1985-2014, respectively. The glacier area, volume, and length are projected to decrease by 22-33%, 51-63%, and 13-22% under ensembled scenarios of full spectrum at selected glaciers. The proposed multi-perspective approach is advantageous in shortlisting a limited number of climate models, representing the full range of possible future climatic conditions, to assess the full range of expected impacts of climate changes on indigenous glacio-hydrology. Such selection eventually reduces the glacio-hydrological simulation task.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20060301] ; National Natural Science Foundation China (NSFC)[41761144075] ; CAS-TWAS President's Fellowship Program
WOS关键词	ICE-THICKNESS DISTRIBUTION ; MASS BALANCES ; PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION ; KARAKORAM-HIMALAYA ; BIAS CORRECTION ; 20-1ST CENTURY ; MODELS ; ENSEMBLE ; TRAJECTORIES ; TEMPERATURE
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000673486000003
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation China (NSFC) ; CAS-TWAS President's Fellowship Program
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/164825]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Luo, Yi
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Res Ctr Ecol & Environm Cent Asia, Urumqi, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modelling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shafeeque, Muhammad,Luo, Yi. A multi-perspective approach for selecting CMIP6 scenarios to project climate change impacts on glacio-hydrology with a case study in Upper Indus river basin[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2021,599:16.
APA	Shafeeque, Muhammad,&Luo, Yi.(2021).A multi-perspective approach for selecting CMIP6 scenarios to project climate change impacts on glacio-hydrology with a case study in Upper Indus river basin.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,599,16.
MLA	Shafeeque, Muhammad,et al."A multi-perspective approach for selecting CMIP6 scenarios to project climate change impacts on glacio-hydrology with a case study in Upper Indus river basin".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 599(2021):16.