Separating variance in the runoff in Beijing's river system under climate change and human activities

doi:10.1016/j.pce.2021.103044

	Separating variance in the runoff in Beijing's river system under climate change and human activities
	Jin, Shaofei 1; Zheng, Ziyan 2; Ning, Like 3,4
刊名	PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH
	2021-10-01
卷号	123 页码:10
关键词	Runoff Climate change Human activities Water resources
ISSN号	1474-7065
DOI	10.1016/j.pce.2021.103044
通讯作者	Zheng, Ziyan(zhengzy@tea.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Identifying the individual contributions of factors impacting the water resources in Beijing plays crucial roles in planning water management for resolving water shortage problems and for the sustainable utilization of water resources. In this study, four statistical methods, the Mann-Kendall test, double mass curve method, modified slope changing ratio of accumulative quantity method, and generalized linear model, were employed to detect the individual contributions of climate change and human activities on the variation of runoff in Beijing from 1961 to 2017. Our results showed that the annual runoff declined significantly during the entire study period. The mean temperature increased significantly, while the annual precipitation did not change significantly, over the entire study period. An abrupt change was detected in 1977 with a change in runoff. During the period of change, climate change contributed 20.0% to the increase in runoff, while human activities contributed 120% to the decline in runoff from 1978 to 2017. Furthermore, we partitioned the contributions of human activities into eight social and economic factors. These factors explained 55.29% of the total contributions of human activities. The economic factors, the changes in the arable land area and accumulative construction area, and the change in urbanization rate contributed 15.94%, 18.37%, and 6.05% to the total variation in runoff, respectively. Finally, the South-to-North Water Transfer Project contributed 5.19% of the change in runoff. Our study provides the individual contributions of the specific impact factors to runoff in Beijing and may help policy-makers to devise targeted water resource management plans.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA23040501] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701099] ; Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province[2019J01768] ; Beijing Natural Science Foundation[8144055] ; Open Project Program of the Research Center of Data Science, Technology and Applications, Minjiang University, China[MJXY-KF-2019002]
WOS关键词	WATER-RESOURCES ; LAND-USE ; IMPACTS ; STREAMFLOW ; BASIN ; PRECIPITATION ; SURFACE ; REGION ; URBANIZATION ; TEMPERATURE
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000685416600005
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province ; Beijing Natural Science Foundation ; Open Project Program of the Research Center of Data Science, Technology and Applications, Minjiang University, China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/164595]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zheng, Ziyan
作者单位	1.Minjiang Univ, Dept Geog, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East Asia, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modelling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Yucheng Comprehens Expt Stn, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jin, Shaofei,Zheng, Ziyan,Ning, Like. Separating variance in the runoff in Beijing's river system under climate change and human activities[J]. PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH,2021,123:10.
APA	Jin, Shaofei,Zheng, Ziyan,&Ning, Like.(2021).Separating variance in the runoff in Beijing's river system under climate change and human activities.PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH,123,10.
MLA	Jin, Shaofei,et al."Separating variance in the runoff in Beijing's river system under climate change and human activities".PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH 123(2021):10.