A physics-based model to derive rainfall intensity-duration threshold for debris flow

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106930

	A physics-based model to derive rainfall intensity-duration threshold for debris flow
	Zhang, S. J.2; Xu, C. X.3; Wei, F. Q.4; Hu, K. H.2; Xu, H.5; Zhao, L. Q.1; Zhang, G. P.1
刊名	GEOMORPHOLOGY
	2020-02-15
卷号	351 页码:13
关键词	Debris flow I-D threshold Water-soil mixture Density
ISSN号	0169-555X
DOI	10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106930
通讯作者	Wei, F. Q.(fqwei@imde.ac.cn) ; Hu, K. H.(khhu@imde.ac.cn)
英文摘要	A statistical method to establish an intensity-duration curve (I-D curve) for debris flows is highly dependent on a large amount of debris flows and rainfall events and is impossible for a gully lacking observation data. To overcome this limitation, a physics-based model to derive the I-D curve is presented. In this new model, the density of the debris flow is chosen as the key parameter, based on which, the rainfall intensity and duration necessary for fitting I-D curve are obtained. The physical model is validated in Jiangjia Gully, a typical debris flow valley with several debris flows each year. A series of I-D curves under the conditions of different antecedent rainfalls were fitted. These derived curves are similar to the shape of the curve from the statistical method, but having upper and lower boundary lines related to the necessary conditions for the occurrence of debris flows. The precision of the new model is identified as about 80.5% using 63 collected rainfalls in Jiangjia Gully in Yunan province, China. This value is 27.7% higher than the curve fitted through the statistical method. This new physical model is capable of improving the deficiency of the statistical method and has great application potential for predicting debris flows. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFC1505503] ; Research and Demonstration Program of Precise Warning and Emergence Disposal Technologies against geo-hazards in Jiuzhaigou scenic area[KJ-2018-23] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[51809262] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[41871020]
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Geology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000514254300013
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://119.78.100.138/handle/2HOD01W0/9872]
专题	中国科学院重庆绿色智能技术研究院
通讯作者	Wei, F. Q.; Hu, K. H.
作者单位	1.China Meteorol Adm, Publ Meteorol Serv Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China 3.Texas Tech Univ, Dept Ind Mfg & Syst Engn, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Chongqing Inst Green & Intelligent Technol, Chongqing 400714, Peoples R China 5.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Meteorol Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, S. J.,Xu, C. X.,Wei, F. Q.,et al. A physics-based model to derive rainfall intensity-duration threshold for debris flow[J]. GEOMORPHOLOGY,2020,351:13.
APA	Zhang, S. J..,Xu, C. X..,Wei, F. Q..,Hu, K. H..,Xu, H..,...&Zhang, G. P..(2020).A physics-based model to derive rainfall intensity-duration threshold for debris flow.GEOMORPHOLOGY,351,13.
MLA	Zhang, S. J.,et al."A physics-based model to derive rainfall intensity-duration threshold for debris flow".GEOMORPHOLOGY 351(2020):13.