A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting | |
Xie, Gang2; Qian, Yatong1,2; Wang, Shouyang2 | |
刊名 | ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH |
2020-03-01 | |
卷号 | 81页码:16 |
关键词 | Tourism demand Complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise Data characteristic analysis Time series forecasting |
ISSN号 | 0160-7383 |
DOI | 10.1016/j.annals.2020.102891 |
英文摘要 | With the frequent occurrence of irregular events in recent years, the tourism industry in some areas, such as Hong Kong, has suffered great volatility. To enhance the predictive accuracy of tourism demand forecasting, a decomposition-ensemble approach is developed based on the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise, data characteristic analysis, and the Elman's neural network model. Using Hong Kong tourism demand as an empirical case, this study firstly investigates how data characteristic analysis is used in a decomposition-ensemble approach. The empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms other models in both point and interval forecasts for different prediction horizons, indicating the effectiveness of the proposed approach for forecasting tourism demand, especially for time series with complexity. |
资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71771207] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71642006] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS |
WOS研究方向 | Social Sciences - Other Topics ; Sociology |
语种 | 英语 |
出版者 | PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000527848700029 |
内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51366] |
专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
通讯作者 | Xie, Gang |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, MDIS, CFS, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,Wang, Shouyang. A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting[J]. ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH,2020,81:16. |
APA | Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,&Wang, Shouyang.(2020).A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting.ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH,81,16. |
MLA | Xie, Gang,et al."A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting".ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH 81(2020):16. |
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