Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1

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	Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data
	Spinoni, Jonathan 7; Barbosa, Paulo 7; Bucchignani, Edoardo 8; Cassano, John 9,10; Cavazos, Tereza 11; Christensen, Jens H.12,13,30; Christensen, Ole B.13; Coppola, Erika 14; Evans, Jason 15; Geyer, Beate 16
刊名	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
	2020-05-01
卷号	33 期号:9 页码:3635-3661
ISSN号	0894-8755
DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
通讯作者	Spinoni, Jonathan(jonathan.spinoni@ec.europa.eu)
英文摘要	Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981-2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44 degrees) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, similar to 15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071-2100 versus 1981-2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (similar to 47% under RCP4.5, similar to 49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS记录号	WOS:000568259800013
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/168777]
专题	中国科学院海洋研究所
通讯作者	Spinoni, Jonathan
作者单位	1.Sao Paulo State Univ, Bauru, SP, Brazil 2.Bauru Meteorol Ctr IPMet UNESP, Bauru, SP, Brazil 3.Isik Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Phys, Istanbul, Turkey 4.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Karlsruhe, Germany 5.Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Ciencias Atmosfer, Sao Paulo, Brazil 6.Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Nat, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera & Oceanos, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina 7.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy 8.Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, Lecce, Italy 9.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 10.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Spinoni, Jonathan,Barbosa, Paulo,Bucchignani, Edoardo,et al. Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2020,33(9):3635-3661.
APA	Spinoni, Jonathan.,Barbosa, Paulo.,Bucchignani, Edoardo.,Cassano, John.,Cavazos, Tereza.,...&Dosio, Alessandro.(2020).Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,33(9),3635-3661.
MLA	Spinoni, Jonathan,et al."Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 33.9(2020):3635-3661.