Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China

doi:10.1007/s10346-019-01270-z

CORC > 成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室

	Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China
	Yang Hongjuan 2,3; Wei Fangqiang 1; Ma Zhenfeng 4; Guo Haiyan 4; Su Pengcheng 3; Zhang Shaojie 3
刊名	LANDSLIDES
	2020
卷号	17 期号:1 页码:61-77
关键词	Rainfall threshold Landslide Logistic regression ROC analysis
ISSN号	1612-510X
DOI	10.1007/s10346-019-01270-z
产权排序	1
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Dazhou is one of the landslide-prone areas in southwest China. Since rainfall is the primary factor responsible for slope instability in this region, empirical rainfall thresholds may be effective for landslide warning. Thresholds using the intraday rainfall and the effective antecedent rainfall up to 7 days prior to landslide occurrence have been defined for this area. The study region was divided into 6 alert zones. For each zone, the daily rainfall and landslide data in the monsoon season during the period of 2003-2010 were analyzed, and the logistic regression method was employed to fit the dataset and provide diverse probability thresholds. Subsequently, the optimal threshold was identified by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Furthermore, two classes of criteria and the associated indicators were used to determine the three rainfall thresholds for the warning model with four classes of alert (i.e., no warning, moderate warning, high warning, and very high warning). Finally, these thresholds were validated with dataset for the period 2011-2015. It suggests that the optimal threshold derived from ROC analysis, with the probability ranging from 4 to 10%, is suitable for issuing moderate warning, while the probability corresponding to the thresholds for high warning and very high warning varies in the ranges 30-55% and 75-95%, respectively. Performance of these thresholds in the period 2011-2015 is comparable to that in the period 2003-2010, indicating the robustness of them and the potential for practical use.
电子版国际标准刊号	1612-5118
WOS关键词	SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; DEBRIS FLOWS ; TRIGGERING THRESHOLDS ; PREDICTION ; DEFINITION ; INITIATION ; MODEL ; PERFORMANCE ; PROVINCE ; DEFINE
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
WOS记录号	WOS:000512067600006
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/33880]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
通讯作者	Wei Fangqiang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Green & Intelligent Technol, Chongqing 400714, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China; 4.Sichuan Climate Ctr, Chengdu 610071, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang Hongjuan,Wei Fangqiang,Ma Zhenfeng,et al. Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China[J]. LANDSLIDES,2020,17(1):61-77.
APA	Yang Hongjuan,Wei Fangqiang,Ma Zhenfeng,Guo Haiyan,Su Pengcheng,&Zhang Shaojie.(2020).Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China.LANDSLIDES,17(1),61-77.
MLA	Yang Hongjuan,et al."Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China".LANDSLIDES 17.1(2020):61-77.