Method of debris flow prediction based on a numerical weather forecast and its application

doi:10.2495/DEB060041

CORC > 成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前）

	Method of debris flow prediction based on a numerical weather forecast and its application
	Wei, F 2; Gao, K 2; Cui, P 2; Hu, K 2; Xu, J 1; Zhang, G 1; Bi, B 1
	2006
会议日期	2006
会议地点	Rhodes
关键词	debris flow prediction numerical weather forecast south-west of China
卷号	90
DOI	10.2495/DEB060041
页码	37-46
国家	GREECE
英文摘要	Debris flow is one of the main natural hazards in mountains areas of China, especially in south-western China. Because the region with debris flow hazard is wide and the number of debris flow valleys is great, debris flow prediction is an important measure of debris flow disaster mitigation. A prediction method of debris flow based on a numerical weather forecast was carried out. According to the conditions of debris flow formation including energy, incompact debris and inducing factors (rainfall), the relative height, stratum, fault, land use, total rainfall consisting of effective antecedent precipitation and forecasting precipitation, and maximum precipitation intensity of I hour were selected as factors for prediction of debris flow. A prediction model was set up with these factors and extension theory which is a new kind of knowledge system based on the concepts of matter-element and extension set. In the model, total rainfall and maximum rainfall intensity of 1 hour obtained by a numerical weather forecast are the principle input variables. South-westem China including Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and Chongqing which has heaviest debris flow disasters in China was selected as a case study region. An application system of debris flow prediction based on the model was developed with GIS (ArcGIS) for the study region.
源文献作者	Lorenzini, G ; Brebbia, CA ; Emmanouloudis, D
产权排序	1
会议录	Monitoring, Simulation, Prevention and Remediation of Dense and Debris Flows
会议录出版者	WIT PRESS
会议录出版地	SOUTHAMPTON
语种	英语
ISSN号	1746-448X
ISBN号	1-84564-169-8
WOS记录号	WOS:000239378000004
内容类型	会议论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/33518]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前）成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
通讯作者	Wei, F
作者单位	1.National Meteorology Center of Chinese Meteorological Administration 2.Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences;
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wei, F,Gao, K,Cui, P,et al. Method of debris flow prediction based on a numerical weather forecast and its application[C]. 见:. Rhodes. 2006.