Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104677

	Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
	Yang, Yuanyuan 1,2,3; Bao, Wenkai 1,2,3; Liu, Yansui 1,2,3
刊名	LAND USE POLICY
	2020-07-01
卷号	96 页码:12
关键词	Land use and Land cover change Land system dynamics Scenario simulation Dyna-CLUE Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
ISSN号	0264-8377
DOI	10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104677
通讯作者	Liu, Yansui(liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Urbanization-induced land use problems have been haunting China's urban agglomerations ever since the beginning of this period of unparalleled economic progress. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is no exception, where coordinated development planning has been implemented by the central government to further resolve attributed problems. Land use simulation models can be used to help governments and planners understand how planning and policies affect the future landscape, by developing sustainable land use strategies which may reasonably balance urbanization and eco-environmental protection. In this paper, we explored the characteristics of historical land use dynamics from 2000 to 2015 in the BTH region and simulated its future land use patterns for 2030 by combining the Dyna-CLUE model with a Markov model to deal with some short comings of existing land use models. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The figure of merits (FoM) based on the method of three-map comparison reached 85.89 %, which indicated that the simulation model has satisfactory accuracy. (2) Land use structures and spatial patterns differed significantly under business as usual (BAU) scenario, cropland protection (CP) scenario and ecological security (ES) scenario, respectively, owing to the variation of the major objectives designed for different scenarios. (3) By scenario analysis and through tradeoffs, the land use mode under the ecological security scenario might be the optimal solution for future coordinated development in the BTH region. These results will provide theoretical basis and meaningful guidance for regional land optimal allocation.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601173] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41931293] ; Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China[2016M600954]
WOS关键词	COVER CHANGE ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; URBAN EXPANSION ; SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERNS ; RAPID URBANIZATION ; SPATIAL DYNAMICS ; ARABLE LAND ; USE POLICY ; CHINA ; MODEL
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000541149900044
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/162424]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liu, Yansui
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Yuanyuan,Bao, Wenkai,Liu, Yansui. Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. LAND USE POLICY,2020,96:12.
APA	Yang, Yuanyuan,Bao, Wenkai,&Liu, Yansui.(2020).Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.LAND USE POLICY,96,12.
MLA	Yang, Yuanyuan,et al."Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region".LAND USE POLICY 96(2020):12.