Climate change-induced economic impact assessment by parameterizing spatially heterogeneous CO2 distribution

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120668

	Climate change-induced economic impact assessment by parameterizing spatially heterogeneous CO2 distribution
	Jiang, Sijian 1,2,3; Deng, Xiangzheng 1,2,3; Liu, Gang 1,2,3; Zhang, Fan 1,2,3
刊名	TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
	2021-06-01
卷号	167 页码:11
关键词	Climate change Integrated assessment model Carbon dioxide concentration Spatial heterogeneity
ISSN号	0040-1625
DOI	10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120668
通讯作者	Deng, Xiangzheng(dengxz@lreis.ac.cn)
英文摘要	The spatially heterogeneous distribution of CO2 concentrations is an uncertain factor in the assessment of climate change impact. We developed and calibrated a simple climate module to project regional temperature increases using atmospheric simulation output data from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We compared the differences in regional atmospheric temperature changes arising from spatially homogeneous and heterogeneous distributions of CO2 and assessed economic loss. The results indicated that spatially heterogeneous distribution of CO2 affected the projection of regional temperature increases, with faster temperature rises in industrially advanced regions. Compared with a homogeneous distribution, economic damage was aggravated in the Northern Hemisphere using a heterogeneous distribution, especially in middle-latitude regions. China saw increases in economic damage of 0.030%, 0.007%, and 0.002% in 2100 under SSP5-RCP8.5, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP1-RCP2.6, respectively. This suggests that impact assessments that ignore spatially heterogeneous CO2 concentrations could lead to inaccurate estimates of climate damage. These findings indicate that it is necessary to parameterize the spatial distribution of CO2 in traditional climate change assessments. The results provide a more accurate estimation of regional temperature increases and climate change-induced economic damage to support policymaking for mitigation and adaptation.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602500]
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics ; Public Administration
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
WOS记录号	WOS:000637776500008
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161758]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Deng, Xiangzheng
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100149, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Chinese Agr Policy, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang, Sijian,Deng, Xiangzheng,Liu, Gang,et al. Climate change-induced economic impact assessment by parameterizing spatially heterogeneous CO2 distribution[J]. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,2021,167:11.
APA	Jiang, Sijian,Deng, Xiangzheng,Liu, Gang,&Zhang, Fan.(2021).Climate change-induced economic impact assessment by parameterizing spatially heterogeneous CO2 distribution.TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,167,11.
MLA	Jiang, Sijian,et al."Climate change-induced economic impact assessment by parameterizing spatially heterogeneous CO2 distribution".TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 167(2021):11.