Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107588

	Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s
	Zhang, Yajie 1,2; Niu, Haishan 3; Yu, Qiang 1,2
刊名	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
	2021-06-01
卷号	125 页码:11
关键词	Yield change Climate change Atmospheric CO2 concentration Suitable planting area China
ISSN号	1470-160X
DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107588
通讯作者	Zhang, Yajie(zhangyajie1990@yeah.net)
英文摘要	Maize, rice, and wheat are the major staple food crops in China and are crucial components of national food security and economic development. The cultivation and production of these crops are expected to be affected by climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and have drawn considerable public attention. The objective of this experiment was to understand the impact of future climate change (including increased temperature and changed precipitation patterns) and elevated CO2 concentration on variations of crop yields in their suitable planting areas. We conducted a spatial grid-based analysis of maize, rice, and wheat yields using projections of future climate generated by a multi-model ensemble of global climate models for three representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in suitable planting areas in China for the 2030s (2021-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2060). Suitable areas for the planting of maize, rice, and wheat under the high-emission scenarios migrated slightly northward over time. Yield of all three crops would be expected to remain stable or to slightly increase across China in the future. A possible reason for this result may be because the positive effects of increased precipitation and CO2 offset the negative effect of increased temperature on crop yields, resulting in a much more appropriate growth environment and increased biomass accumulation and crop yield. In addition, this study also indicated that changes in crop yields were mainly driven by temperature and CO2 factors. The potential effects of climate change and elevated CO2 concentration on migration of planting areas and yield fluctuations for crops should be given greater attention in the future.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program (A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20050103] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41961124006] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41730645] ; International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[161461KYSB20170013] ; 111 Project of China[B12007]
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000637798700002
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program (A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; 111 Project of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161736]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Yajie
作者单位	1.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, 19A Yuquan Rd, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Yajie,Niu, Haishan,Yu, Qiang. Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2021,125:11.
APA	Zhang, Yajie,Niu, Haishan,&Yu, Qiang.(2021).Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,125,11.
MLA	Zhang, Yajie,et al."Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 125(2021):11.