Pathway optimization of China's carbon emission reduction and its provincial allocation under temperature control threshold

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111034

	Pathway optimization of China's carbon emission reduction and its provincial allocation under temperature control threshold
	Wu, Feng 2; Huang, Ningyu 1,3; Liu, Guijun 2; Niu, Lulu 2; Qiao, Zhi 1
刊名	JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
	2020-10-01
卷号	271 页码:11
关键词	Paris agreement Carbon dioxide emission reduction Optimal emission path Quadratic directional distance function model Quotas allocation Temperature control threshold
ISSN号	0301-4797
DOI	10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111034
通讯作者	Qiao, Zhi(qiaozhi@tju.edu.cn)
英文摘要	As the largest carbon emitter in the world, China faces great pressure to fulfill the temperature control targets, i. e., 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C, proposed in the Paris Agreement. Thus, selecting a development path that could both meet the temperature targets and economic growth is essential and worth investigating. We propose an optimization model to analyze China's carbon dioxide emission paths from 2010 to 2050 in three scenarios, namely baseline, and 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C target scenarios. The marginal cost of carbon abatement in China's 30 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) were also calculated using the quadratic directional distance function model, and the quotas of carbon dioxide emission among provinces were allocated. Carbon dioxide emission peak will occur in 2040 under the 2 degrees C target scenario and in 2030 under the 1.5 degrees C target scenario. The marginal cost of carbon abatement to achieve the 1.5 degrees C goal is approximately 1.6 times more expensive than the 2 degrees C goal. We suggest to implement emission reduction policies in the Eastern coastal areas of China and to allocate greater carbon dioxide emission quotas in under-developed areas in the Central and Western regions. Provincial quota allocation may also help to balance regional development and achieve the mutually beneficial goal of economic growth and carbon emission reduction in China. Our findings provide practical guidance on achieving carbon dioxide emission reduction and critical enlightenments on policymaking.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Plan project[2016YFA0602504]
WOS关键词	BALANCED ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; POLLUTION-ABATEMENT ; DIOXIDE EMISSIONS ; SCENARIO ANALYSIS ; SHADOW PRICES ; ACHIEVE ; TARGET ; COSTS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000558812000087
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Plan project
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/158040]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Qiao, Zhi
作者单位	1.Tianjin Univ, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Tianjin 300072, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Tianjin Univ, Sch Architecture, Tianjin 300072, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Feng,Huang, Ningyu,Liu, Guijun,et al. Pathway optimization of China's carbon emission reduction and its provincial allocation under temperature control threshold[J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,2020,271:11.
APA	Wu, Feng,Huang, Ningyu,Liu, Guijun,Niu, Lulu,&Qiao, Zhi.(2020).Pathway optimization of China's carbon emission reduction and its provincial allocation under temperature control threshold.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,271,11.
MLA	Wu, Feng,et al."Pathway optimization of China's carbon emission reduction and its provincial allocation under temperature control threshold".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 271(2020):11.