Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-59265-z

	Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease
	Xu, Chengdong 2; Zhang, Xiangxue 1,2; Wang, Li 2,3,4; Zhou, Yuke 5; Xiao, Gexin 6; Liao, Jiaqiang 7
刊名	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
	2020-02-13
卷号	10 期号:1 页码:9
ISSN号	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-020-59265-z
通讯作者	Xiao, Gexin(biocomputer@126.com) ; Liao, Jiaqiang(ljq19861023@163.com)
英文摘要	Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), predominantly occurs among infants and children. Previous studies have shown that suitable, stable temperatures favor HFMD virus reproduction; however, temperature fluctuations also affect virus transmission, and there are, so far, no studies concerning the association between such fluctuations and the incidence of HFMD. The objective of this study was to map the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD incidence and quantify the long-term effects of temperature fluctuations on HFMD incidence in children. HFMD cases in children under five, from January 2009 to December 2013, in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces of China, were used in this study. The GeoDetector and Bayesian space-time hierarchy models were employed to explore the spatial-temporal association between temperature fluctuations and HFMD incidence. The results indicate that HFMD incidence had significant spatial stratified heterogeneity (GeoDetector q-statistic = 0.83, p < 0.05), and that areas with higher risk mainly appeared in metropolises and their adjacent regions. HFMD transmission was negatively associated with temperature fluctuations. A 1 degrees C increase in the standard deviation of maximum and minimum temperatures was associated with decreases of 8.22% and 11.87% in the risk of HFMD incidence, respectively. The study suggests that large temperature fluctuations affect virus growth or multiplication, thereby inhibiting the activity of the virus and potentially even leading to its extinction, and consequently affecting the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD. The findings can serve as a reference for the practical control of this disease and offer help in the rational allocation of medical resources.
资助项目	National Science Foundation of China[41901331] ; National Science Foundation of China[41601478] ; National Science Foundation of China[41531179] ; National Science Foundation of China[41971357] ; Innovation Project of LREIS[O88RA205YA] ; Innovation Project of LREIS[O88RA200YA] ; Henan Postdoctoral Science Foundation[CJ3050A0670196] ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System
WOS关键词	CHILDHOOD HAND ; CHINA ; PROVINCE
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
WOS记录号	WOS:000562888500017
资助机构	National Science Foundation of China ; Innovation Project of LREIS ; Henan Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/157970]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Xiao, Gexin; Liao, Jiaqiang
作者单位	1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Henan Univ, Coll Environm & Planning, Kaifeng 475001, Peoples R China 4.Henan Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Geospatial Technol Forthe Middle & LowerY, Kai Feng 475001, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observ & Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 6.China Natl Ctr Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing 100022, Peoples R China 7.Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Tongji Med Coll, Sch Publ Hlth, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Chengdong,Zhang, Xiangxue,Wang, Li,et al. Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2020,10(1):9.
APA	Xu, Chengdong,Zhang, Xiangxue,Wang, Li,Zhou, Yuke,Xiao, Gexin,&Liao, Jiaqiang.(2020).Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,10(1),9.
MLA	Xu, Chengdong,et al."Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 10.1(2020):9.