Analysis of the carbon emission reduction potential of China's key industries under the IPCC 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C limits

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120198

	Analysis of the carbon emission reduction potential of China's key industries under the IPCC 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C limits
	Wu, Feng 1; Huang, Ningyu 2; Zhang, Fan 1; Niu, Lulu 1; Zhang, Yali 1
刊名	TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
	2020-10-01
卷号	159 页码:8
关键词	Paris Agreement Carbon emission rights ZSG-DEA model Scenario analysis Emission reduction potential
ISSN号	0040-1625
DOI	10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120198
通讯作者	Zhang, Yali(zhangyali@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Carbon emission from human activities is one of the main factors inducing the on-going global warming. It is, therefore, essential to establish a shared responsibility in industry for carbon emissions reduction. In this study, we examined the allocation of carbon emission rights in China's six high-energy-consuming industries from the perspective of allocation efficiency. The initial carbon emission quota was iteratively optimized using the zerosum gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model. Furthermore, a scenario-based method was used to predict the future of various industries under a 1.5 degrees C warming target. According to our analysis, the largest carbon emission quota was in the transport industry, at 19.61 Gt CO2 under a 2 degrees C target and 16.27 Gt CO2 under a 1.5 degrees C target. The electric power industry and the iron and steel industry show the greatest potential for emissions reduction, and significant effort is now needed to achieve the allocation efficiency target. A "high economic growth and low energy consumption" scenario was more conducive to the sustainable growth of industry. Emissions reduction should focus on the electric power industry and the transport industry. In addition, the use of energy-saving and emissions-reducing technologies in high-energy-consuming industries should be increased.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Plan project[2016YFA0602504]
WOS关键词	CO2 EMISSIONS ; DIOXIDE EMISSION ; ALLOCATION ; EFFICIENCY ; PROVINCES ; IMPACTS
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics ; Public Administration
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
WOS记录号	WOS:000566797700004
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Plan project
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156861]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Yali
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Tianjin Univ, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Tianjin 300072, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Feng,Huang, Ningyu,Zhang, Fan,et al. Analysis of the carbon emission reduction potential of China's key industries under the IPCC 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C limits[J]. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,2020,159:8.
APA	Wu, Feng,Huang, Ningyu,Zhang, Fan,Niu, Lulu,&Zhang, Yali.(2020).Analysis of the carbon emission reduction potential of China's key industries under the IPCC 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C limits.TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,159,8.
MLA	Wu, Feng,et al."Analysis of the carbon emission reduction potential of China's key industries under the IPCC 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C limits".TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 159(2020):8.