Global socioeconomic exposure of heat extremes under climate change

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123275

	Global socioeconomic exposure of heat extremes under climate change
	Chen, Jie 2,3; Liu, Yujie 2,3; Pan, Tao 2; Ciais, Philippe 4; Ma, Ting 5; Liu, Yanhua 2; Yamazaki, Dai 1; Ge, Quansheng 2,3; Penuelas, Josep 6,7
刊名	JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
	2020-12-20
卷号	277 页码:12
关键词	Socioeconomic exposure Heat extremes Climate change Population exposure Gross domestic product (GDP) exposure
ISSN号	0959-6526
DOI	10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123275
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Growing evidence indicates that the risk of heat extremes will increase as climate change progresses and create a significant threat to public health and the economy. Socioeconomic exposure is the key component for assessing the risk of such events. To quantify socioeconomic exposure to heat extremes for 2016-2035 and 2046-2065, we use the projections of five global climate models forced by using three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP), and we take into account the geographic change in the distribution in shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The exposure of the global population for 2046-2065 is the greatest under the RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario, up to 1037(+/- 164) x 10(9) person-days, and the global GDP exposure for 2046-2065 is greatest under the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario, up to 18(+/- 2) x 10(15) dollar-days. Asia has the highest exposure among all continents for both population and GDP, accounting for over half of the global exposure. Africa has the largest increase in exposure, with the annual population and GDP exposures increasing by over 9- and 29-fold, respectively, compared with the base period (1986-2005). The effect of climate makes the dominant contribution (47%-53%) globally for the change in population exposure. Changes in the geographic distribution of GDP cause nearly 50% of the total change in GDP exposure for 2016-2035. Mitigating emissions of greenhouse gases, either at the level of the RCP2.6 scenario or at a more ambitious target, is essential for reducing socioeconomic exposure to heat extremes. In addition, designing and implementing effective measures of adaptation are urgently needed in Asia and Africa to aid socioeconomic systems suffering from heat extremes due to climate change. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS[2016049] ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), CAS[2017RC101] ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS[QYZDB-SSW-DQC005] ; [ERC-SyG2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P]
WOS关键词	1.5 DEGREES-C ; POPULATION EXPOSURE ; TEMPERATURE ; CMIP5 ; SUMMER ; IMPACT ; RISK ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; MORTALITY
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000586917600055
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), CAS ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156669]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie
作者单位	1.Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Tokyo, Japan 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci UCAS, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.IPSL LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China 6.CSIC, Global Ecol CREAF CSIC UAB, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain 7.CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Jie,Liu, Yujie,Pan, Tao,et al. Global socioeconomic exposure of heat extremes under climate change[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2020,277:12.
APA	Chen, Jie.,Liu, Yujie.,Pan, Tao.,Ciais, Philippe.,Ma, Ting.,...&Penuelas, Josep.(2020).Global socioeconomic exposure of heat extremes under climate change.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,277,12.
MLA	Chen, Jie,et al."Global socioeconomic exposure of heat extremes under climate change".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 277(2020):12.