Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (Valsa mali) in China under Climate Change

doi:10.3390/f11111126

	Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (Valsa mali) in China under Climate Change
	Xu, Wei 1,2; Sun, Hongyun 3; Jin, Jingwei 1,4; Cheng, Jimin 1,4
刊名	FORESTS
	2020-11-01
卷号	11 期号:11 页码:21
关键词	apple valsa canker potential distribution Valsa mali MaxEnt range shifts climate scenario
DOI	10.3390/f11111126
通讯作者	Cheng, Jimin(gyzcjm@ms.iswc.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Apple valsa canker (AVC), caused by Valsa mali, is a serious wood disease of apple trees. The pathogen decays the barks and branches of trees and ruins entire orchards under severe conditions. However, studies have rarely focused on the suitable habitat of the pathogen, especially on a relatively large scale. In this study, we applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt 3.4.1, Princeton, NJ, USA) to predict the distribution of V. mali using climate factors, topographic factors, and soil factors under current and future climate scenarios. We measured the area of suitable habitat, change ratio of the suitable habitat area, increase and decrease maps under climate change, direction and distance of range shifts from the present to the end of the 21st century, and the contribution of environmental variables. The results showed that the area of suitable habitat is currently 183.46 x 10(4) km(2) in China, among which 27.54% is moderately suitable habitat (MSH) and 13.13% is highly suitable habitat (HSH). Compared with current distribution, the area of MSH and HSH increases in future and the change ratio are positive. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3-70 is considered the optimum climate scenario for V. mali. The suitability of V. mali increased mainly in Northwest, North, and Northeast China. V. mali will shift to the northwest with climate change. The shift distance optimistically increased from the SSP1-26 to the SSP5-85, with the biggest shift distance of 758.44 km in the 2090s under the SSP5-85 scenario. Minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) was the most critical climate factor affecting the distribution of the pathogen, and topographic factors played a more important role than soil factors. This study demonstrates that the potential distribution of V. mali is vitally affected by climate change and provides a method for large-scale research on the distribution of pathogens.
资助项目	Deployment Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[KJZD-EW-TZ-G10]
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION ; DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; RANGE SHIFTS ; MAXENT ; TEMPERATURE ; THRESHOLDS ; RESISTANCE ; MANAGEMENT ; INFECTION ; SELECTION
WOS研究方向	Forestry
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000593155900001
资助机构	Deployment Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156467]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Cheng, Jimin
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Northwest Agr & Forest Univ, Coll Plant Protect, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 4.Northwest Agr & Forest Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Wei,Sun, Hongyun,Jin, Jingwei,et al. Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (Valsa mali) in China under Climate Change[J]. FORESTS,2020,11(11):21.
APA	Xu, Wei,Sun, Hongyun,Jin, Jingwei,&Cheng, Jimin.(2020).Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (Valsa mali) in China under Climate Change.FORESTS,11(11),21.
MLA	Xu, Wei,et al."Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (Valsa mali) in China under Climate Change".FORESTS 11.11(2020):21.