The central trend in crop yields under climate change in China: A systematic review

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135355

	The central trend in crop yields under climate change in China: A systematic review
	Liu, Yuan 1,2; Li, Ning 1,2; Zhang, Zhengtao 3; Huang, Chengfang 1,2; Chen, Xi 1,2; Wang, Fang 1,2
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2020-02-20
卷号	704 页码:7
关键词	Climate change Crop yield Central trend Subregion China Systematic review
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135355
通讯作者	Li, Ning(ningli@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Evidence from numerous studies has confirmed the impact of climate change on crop yields in China since the IPCC AR4. However, the results from different studies can differ widely due to differences in crops, regions, scenarios, and analytical approaches. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in China using a systematic review at the national and subregional levels based on a data set of 667 published simulations. The results show that (1) the impact of climate change on crop yields was mainly reflected in temperature increases, with an average yield loss of 2.58% per degrees C at the national level. Subregional yield changes ranged from -12.70% to -2.57% per degrees C, with crop yields being more vulnerable in Northeast China and Northwest China than in other subregions. (2) The yields of crop samples that included CO2 effects were 9.23% higher than the yields of those without CO2 effects. (3) Evidence of the impacts of precipitation on crop yield was robust for Northeast China, Northwest China and North China and was absent or contradictory for the other subregions. (4) Of the three different crops, the response of wheat yields to warming was the most evident, especially in Northwest China, followed by that of maize yields in Northeast China. The negative effects of temperature increases on rice yields were significant at the national level but not at the subregional level. This study synthesized the results from all available studies in a systematic and unbiased manner and provided a robust assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on crop yields. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602403] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41907395] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41775103] ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation[9172010] ; BNU Interdisciplinary Research Foundation for first-year doctoral candidates[BNUXKJC1805]
WOS关键词	CHANGE IMPACTS ; RICE YIELDS ; RESPONSES ; AGRICULTURE ; DROUGHT
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000504672800139
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation ; BNU Interdisciplinary Research Foundation for first-year doctoral candidates
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/131201]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Li, Ning
作者单位	1.Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Yuan,Li, Ning,Zhang, Zhengtao,et al. The central trend in crop yields under climate change in China: A systematic review[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2020,704:7.
APA	Liu, Yuan,Li, Ning,Zhang, Zhengtao,Huang, Chengfang,Chen, Xi,&Wang, Fang.(2020).The central trend in crop yields under climate change in China: A systematic review.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,704,7.
MLA	Liu, Yuan,et al."The central trend in crop yields under climate change in China: A systematic review".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 704(2020):7.