Comparison of different methods for detecting change points in hydroclimatic time series

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.123973

	Comparison of different methods for detecting change points in hydroclimatic time series
	Xie, Ping 1,3; Gu, Haiting 3; Sang, Yan-Fang 4; Wu, Ziyi 3; Singh, Vijay P.2,5
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
	2019-10-01
卷号	577 页码:11
关键词	Change point Hydrological variability Detection Time series analysis Nonstationary
ISSN号	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.123973
通讯作者	Sang, Yan-Fang(sangyf@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	An abrupt change is an important manifestation of hydroclimatic variability. Accurate detection of change points is a critical issue in hydroclimatic and climate change studies. In the article, we evaluated the performances of 12 methods (including both parametric and non-parametric) for detecting change points in hydroclimatic time series by considering the influences of eight major factors. Different methods exhibited different efficiencies and eight of the methods performed better which are recommended for application. Furthermore, the mean values of series and locations of change points were found to have little influence on the detection of change points. However, for a time series with smaller variance but bigger skewness and larger difference in the mean values before and after the change point, the abrupt changes can be more easily and accurately detected. Detection of change points in shorter series would have larger uncertainty. Based on the Monte-Carlo experiments, the efficiency of each method was quantified and its capability was quantitatively clarified. Detection of abrupt changes in precipitation over Southwest China showed that the Indian monsoon had a dominant influence on precipitation in the regions south of 30 degrees N and west of 110 degrees E. Since 2007 the Indian monsoon has maintained a weakening pattern, causing a decrease in precipitation on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, which is one of the main causes of frequently occurring droughts. Results of this study can be a useful reference for choosing a method to detect change points in hydroclimate time series, and be an important complement for the detection and attribution of hydroclimatic variability.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[91547205] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91647110] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51579181] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20060402] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2017074]
WOS关键词	EXTREME-VALUE ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MANN-KENDALL ; SUMMER MONSOON ; ABRUPT CHANGES ; RIVER ; WATER ; STREAMFLOW ; INCREASE ; TESTS
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000488304300049
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/129779]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Sang, Yan-Fang
作者单位	1.Collaborat Innovat Ctr Terr Sovereignty & Maritim, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, 321 Scoates Hall, College Stn, TX 77843 USA 3.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 5.Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, 321 Scoates Hall, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Ping,Gu, Haiting,Sang, Yan-Fang,et al. Comparison of different methods for detecting change points in hydroclimatic time series[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019,577:11.
APA	Xie, Ping,Gu, Haiting,Sang, Yan-Fang,Wu, Ziyi,&Singh, Vijay P..(2019).Comparison of different methods for detecting change points in hydroclimatic time series.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,577,11.
MLA	Xie, Ping,et al."Comparison of different methods for detecting change points in hydroclimatic time series".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 577(2019):11.