How is the risk of hydrological drought in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China?

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.361

	How is the risk of hydrological drought in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China?
	Yang, Peng 2,3; Xia, Jun 1,3; Zhang, Yongyong 3; Zhan, Chesheng 3; Sun, Shangxin 4
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2019-11-25
卷号	693 页码:11
关键词	Hydrological drought Ecological development Water supply and demand Copula functions Tarim River Basin
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.361
通讯作者	Yang, Peng(yangp.15b@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Drought is an extremely widespread and common natural disaster that significantly impacts both the socioeconomic activities of a community and the natural environment. A comprehensive and accurate understanding of hydrological drought is important for the drought prediction and risk management. In this study, a discussion of the characteristics of the historical and future hydrological drought in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) is presented. The research was conducted by modeling the relationship between the ecological water supply and the irrigation water supply using the Community Land Model-Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (CLM-DTVGM) and a copula function. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the Pearson-III probability distribution is the optimal marginal probability distribution for calculating the historical and future runoff from the mountainous region and the Alaer hydrological station; (2) the AMH is the optimal copula function for calculating the joint probability for joint between the ecological and irrigation flows, while the Arch 12, from Bayesian theory, is the optimal copula function under future scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5); and (3) the probability and recurrence period are 0.25 and 4 years, respectively, for the historical hydrological drought, when a multi-year runoff average is used as the threshold. In comparison, the probabilities for the future hydrological drought under the RCP 2.6, RCP 45, and RCP 8.5 scenarios arc 0.23, 0.15, and 0.18, respectively, which arc related to the recurrence periods of 43, 7, and 5.6 years, respectively. These results can be used to significantly improve water saving awareness and drought prediction ability in the TRB. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V.
资助项目	Foundation: Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20040302] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571019]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WATER STORAGE ; AKSU RIVER ; RUNOFF ; MODEL ; SIMULATION ; PRECIPITATION ; PROBABILITY ; VARIABILITY ; ENVIRONMENT
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000489694700056
资助机构	Foundation: Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/129515]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Yang, Peng
作者单位	1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430000, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.China Univ Geosci, Sch Geog & Informat Engn, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Aluminum Corp China Mineral Resources Management, Beijing 100082, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Peng,Xia, Jun,Zhang, Yongyong,et al. How is the risk of hydrological drought in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China?[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019,693:11.
APA	Yang, Peng,Xia, Jun,Zhang, Yongyong,Zhan, Chesheng,&Sun, Shangxin.(2019).How is the risk of hydrological drought in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China?.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,693,11.
MLA	Yang, Peng,et al."How is the risk of hydrological drought in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China?".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 693(2019):11.