Attention Matters: An Exploration of Relationship Between Google Search Behaviors and Crude Oil Prices

doi:10.1007/s11424-019-7257-6

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	Attention Matters: An Exploration of Relationship Between Google Search Behaviors and Crude Oil Prices
	Li Xin 1; Zhang Xun2 ; Wang Shouyang2,3 ; Ma Jian 4
刊名	JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
	2019-10-01
卷号	32 期号:5 页码:1438-1459
关键词	Asymmetric response crude oil prices Google search investor attention Markov switching autoregressive model
ISSN号	1009-6124
DOI	10.1007/s11424-019-7257-6
英文摘要	Extant studies have suggested that Google search volume data can serve as a new and direct measure of investor attention in various research fields such as economy, financial and energy markets. However, it is not clear that whether investor attention influences prices in the same direction in different market states (prices increase or decrease). In this paper, the authors propose a measure of speculative attention, demonstrate its advantages by comparing it with several existing ones, and then adopt a Markov switching autoregressive model and an EGARCH model to examine its influences on crude oil prices in two market states. It is argued that the responses of crude oil prices to investor attention are asymmetrical in the two states of crude oil prices. The empirical study shows that one increase in searches causes a significant positive increase in crude oil prices during oil price surges, and a more significant reduction of prices during oil price collapses. The authors also conduct robustness checks by limiting the sample periods and using other measures, and the results support the asymmetric effect of web search behaviors on crude oil prices.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71422015] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71601021] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71101142] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
WOS记录号	WOS:000490596900013
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/35771]
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Zhang Xun
作者单位	1.Univ Sci & Technol Beijing, Donlinks Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 4.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Informat Syst, Kowloon, Tat Chee Ave, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li Xin,Zhang Xun,Wang Shouyang,et al. Attention Matters: An Exploration of Relationship Between Google Search Behaviors and Crude Oil Prices[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2019,32(5):1438-1459.
APA	Li Xin,Zhang Xun,Wang Shouyang,&Ma Jian.(2019).Attention Matters: An Exploration of Relationship Between Google Search Behaviors and Crude Oil Prices.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,32(5),1438-1459.
MLA	Li Xin,et al."Attention Matters: An Exploration of Relationship Between Google Search Behaviors and Crude Oil Prices".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY 32.5(2019):1438-1459.