Forecasting High-Speed Solar Wind Streams Based on Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Images

doi:10.1029/2019SW002186

	Forecasting High-Speed Solar Wind Streams Based on Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Images
	Bu, X.; Luo, B.; Shen, C.; Liu, S.; Gong, J.; Cao, Y.; Wang, H.
刊名	SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
	2019
卷号	17 期号:7 页码:1040-1058
ISSN号	1542-7390
DOI	10.1029/2019SW002186
英文摘要	High-speed solar wind streams that originate from coronal holes play an important role in space weather disturbances, especially during the declining phase of the solar cycle. Space weather forecasters attempt to find good coronal hole indices that can be used to predict high-speed streams days in advance. Several indices related to the coronal hole area, brightness, or magnetic field expansion factor have been reported in the literature. Empirical solar wind forecast models have been developed and used in operational service by several organizations by constructing prediction functions that relate the coronal hole index to the solar wind speed. In this paper, we present a new empirical modeling method and test its validity by comparing it with a previously reported method when applied to different coronal hole indices. In total, six empirical models are tested for a long period of time (2011-2018), with a 27-day persistence model as a comparison benchmark. The results show that while all these empirical models can capture the temporal patterns of the solar wind observations well, the new modeling method and utilization of a composite coronal hole index P-CH as an input parameter indeed improves the forecast accuracy. The high-speed streams can be predicted approximately 3 days in advance, with a probability of detection of 0.78, a positive predictive value of 0.73, and a threat score of 0.61. The uncertainty of the high-speed stream arrival time is approximately 1 day and the uncertainty of the peak speed is approximately 80 km/s.
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/7202]
专题	国家空间科学中心_空间技术部
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bu, X.,Luo, B.,Shen, C.,et al. Forecasting High-Speed Solar Wind Streams Based on Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Images[J]. SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,2019,17(7):1040-1058.
APA	Bu, X..,Luo, B..,Shen, C..,Liu, S..,Gong, J..,...&Wang, H..(2019).Forecasting High-Speed Solar Wind Streams Based on Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Images.SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,17(7),1040-1058.
MLA	Bu, X.,et al."Forecasting High-Speed Solar Wind Streams Based on Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Images".SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS 17.7(2019):1040-1058.