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题名	塔里木河干流生态风险评价
作者	薛英
学位类别	硕士
答辩日期	2007
授予单位	中国科学院．新疆生态与地理研究所
导师	王让会，中科院新疆生态与地理研究所
关键词	生态风险评价
其他题名	Ecological risk assessment of the mainstream of Tarim River
中文摘要	生态风险评价是随着环境管理目标和环境观念的转变而逐渐兴起并得到发展的一个新的研究领域。生态风险评价在保护生态环境、维护公众健康和发展经济过程中起着重要的作用，是实现社会、经济、环境协调统一与持续稳定发展的重要保证。目前，生态风险评价已成为评价和管理环境中各种风险问题的重要手段和分析工具，并为政府制定环境政策提供科学依据。 干旱区内陆河流域的自然地理背景决定了生态环境的脆弱性，流域生态系统孕含着一定的风险性。鉴于河流生态系统在塔里木河干流各生态系统中的重要性以及关键地位，选取了以河流生态系统为主的各类生态系统作为生态风险评价的受体。在此基础上，选择地下水埋深、径流量、地表水矿化度和水库密度等指标表征由于自然或人为因子给各类生态系统带来的生态风险，并从塔里木河干流的自然条件和人为干扰状况出发，建立了塔里木河干流生态风险评价指标体系，同时根据塔里木河干流特殊的地理与生态条件确定了塔里木河干流生态风险评价的指标分级标准。 由于干旱区内陆河流域生态风险评价指标的不确定性和模糊性的特点，本研究采用AHP和模糊数学相结合的方法建立生态风险评价模型，在得出评价结果的基础上，通过加权平均方法对模糊评价结果处理，并借助ARCGIS的地统计分析工具生成风险评价结果图。 研究表明，塔里木河干流的生态风险分布具有明显的空间差异性。并且，生态风险指数由上游的2.5增加为下游的4.1，生态风险大的区域主要分布在干流下游地区。加大对生态风险敏感因素的控制与管理力度是降低生态风险与维持生态稳定的重要途径。Ecological risk assessment is a new study field. Its objective is to estimate the possibility and magnitude in which some undesired ecological events will occur by using mathematics, probability and other risk analysis techniques. Ecological risk assessment plays an important role in protecting ecological environment, maintaining public health and developing economy. And it is the important guarantee to realize the coordination, sustainable and stable development of society, economy and environment, offers scientific basis for the government making environmental policy. Recently, ecological risk assessment has played an important role in environment science. Fragility of eco-environment is determined by the geographical background of the inland river basin, and basin ecosystem pregnant with certain risk. In view of the fact that the river ecosystem has essential status in the mainstream of Tarim River, so we choose some ecosystem in the main of river ecosystem as receptor of ecological risk assessment. On the condition of that, we use some factors such as groundwater depth, runoffs and mineralization of surface water to indicate ecological risk that brought by natural or human factors, and make an evaluation index system based on the natural condition and human disturbance, Meanwhile, the grading standards of ecological risk assessment is constructed in terms of special geographical and ecological conditions. Because the factors of ecological risk assessment in arid Inland River have the characteristics of uncertainty and fuzziness, we build the model of ecological risk assessment by using AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. But the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is fuzzy vector, and it is difficult to make comparison and sorting. So the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation should be dealt with the weighted average method. Then, the result map can be made by the application of Geostatistical analyst module in ARCGIS. The study shows that the distribution of the ecological risk has obvious spatial difference, and the quantization value of ecological risk is changed from 2.5 to 4.1 gradually along the mainstream of Tarim River. Meanwhile, the high ecological risk is mainly distributed in the lower reaches of the mainstream of Tarim River. To reduce the ecological risk and maintain ecological stability, the government should pay more attention on the control and management of the sensitive factors of ecological risk.
语种	中文
学科主题	生态风险评价
公开日期	2010-11-12
页码	共44页
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/7962]
专题	新疆生态与地理研究所_中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所(2010年以前数据)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	薛英. 塔里木河干流生态风险评价[D]. 中国科学院．新疆生态与地理研究所. 2007.

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