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题名	塔里木河流域气候变化及其水文过程响应
作者	徐长春
学位类别	博士
答辩日期	2007
授予单位	中国科学院．新疆生态与地理研究所
导师	陈亚宁，中科院新疆生态与地理研究所
关键词	气候变化
其他题名	Climate Change and Hydrologic Processes Response in the Tarim River Basin
中文摘要	气候变化不但可以通过改变水循环组分对水资源的有效性带来重大影响，而且可以通过增加气候灾害、降低水质以及减少生物多样性等对人类与自然环境的质量和安全构成潜在威胁，从而影响到社会经济的稳定与可持续发展，进行气候变化及其水文水资源响应研究具有重要价值和意义。本文以我国最大的内陆河流域－塔里木河流域为研究区域，以气候变化为基础，以水循环过程为主线，通过采用多种数理统计方法，分析和探讨了过去50a中塔里木河流域气温、降水的变化特征以及径流、蒸发、冰川、积雪等水资源分量对区域气候变化的响应，旨在通过建立二者之间的内在联系揭示区域气候变化对水文水资源系统带来的可能影响。研究结果如下： 1. 流域近50a气候变化特征分析表明：塔里木河流域气温与降水均在20世纪80年代中期发生了跳跃式的突变，自20世纪80年代中期开始，气温、降水增长显著，但气温升高主要是在冬、秋两季，降水增多主要是在夏季。山区与平原区相比，山区增温显著，而平原区增湿显著；源流区与干流区相比，源流区增温又增湿，而干流区主要增温，其中源流四个分区中，阿克苏河增温增湿最显著，其次是叶尔羌河，再次是开都－孔雀河，和田河仅气温升高显著，降水增多不明显。干流区从上游到下游，气温升幅逐渐增大，但降水增幅却逐渐减少，至下游若羌一带，降水甚至减少，可见塔里木河下游干旱少雨的气候状况并未得到明显改善。不同区域对气候变化的响应程度与表现形式有所不同，但相互间存在着某种内在联系。气温、降水变化的EOF分析表明，塔里木河流域气候变化具有全区一致性、南北反位相、东（中）西反位相等分布型，一些区的气温、降水增加（减少）对应着另一些区的气温、降水减少（增加），但以全区一致性为主导。经分析，流域年均气温、年降水与ENSO间不存在显著的相关关系，但El Nino对某些季节的气温和降水存在一定影响。El Nino发展年，流域气温偏高、降水偏多；El Nino发展次年和La Nina年，仅气温有偏低变化，降水无显著变化。 2. 流域近50a地表径流过程响应分析表明：随气候变化，塔里木河四源流来水过程发生变化，阿克苏河与开都－孔雀河来水增多，叶尔羌河来水增多不明显，和田河来水则有轻微减少。经检验，阿克苏河径流单调增长趋势显著，但无突变现象发生，其Hurst指数表明未来径流有进一步增加的可能；叶尔羌河径流单调增长趋势不显著，无突变现象发生，Hurst指数表明未来径流有减少的可能性；和田河径流减少趋势不显著，无突变现象，Hurst指数表明未来径流有发生转变（增加）的可能性；开都－孔雀河径流增长趋势不显著，但上世纪80年代中后期有一突变现象发生，Hurst指数表明未来径流将继续增多。塔里木河上游三源流径流表现为稳定的17a变化周期。周期叠加趋势模型模拟及未来（2004－2010年）预测结果表明：2004、2005和2009年三年为相对丰水年。2006－2008年来水呈减少趋势，但仍分别高于历年平均的4.1％、7.3％和1％。2010年来水将大幅度减少，低于历年平均的8.0％。总体而言，2004－2005年源流来水属偏丰期，2006－2010年属偏枯期。径流、气温、降水的累积距平反映出，阿克苏河和开都－孔雀河的径流分别先后滞后于气温和降水于90年代明显变化，叶尔羌河和和田河径流则先于气温但滞后于降水发生显著变化。未来趋势预测显示，源流来水总量将随气温升高增多，随降水增多而减少。当未来降水增加20％，温度增加1℃，1.5℃和2℃时，径流分别增加8.7%，14.5%和18.2%，蒸发分别增加180.9％、352.6％和554.69％。随源流来水增多，洪水灾害加重，河流湖泊水位上涨。流域年径流量与ENSO间不存在任何明显的相关关系，但不同季节的径流量是否与其有关还需进一步的研究。 3. 流域冰雪水文变化响应分析表明：近40年塔里木河流域冰川消融加速，主要表现为负物质平衡，其消融量与温度正相关，与降水负相关。此间，以冰川融水为主要补给方式的河流其径流量将在一段时期内先增多后减少。冰川退缩一面引发更多各类雪冰洪水，一面导致雪线上升、冻土消失变薄、森林上移并加重土壤侵蚀。积雪覆盖面积及雪深是反映流域气候变化的灵敏指示器，随气温升高，流域积雪覆盖面积却呈总体缓慢增加态势，其中以中海拔高度带（2500～5000m）对气候变化最为敏感。与80年代相比，90年代降雪与融雪速度都得到加快。相关分析显示，积雪覆盖面积与冷季降水正相关，与冷季气温没有明显的相关关系。类似地，流域最大积雪深也呈缓慢增加态势，与冬季气温负相关，与冬季降水量正相关。流域20世纪90年代以来的源流来水增多主要与气温升高（引发的冰川融水增多）、降水增加有关。Climate change threatens water resource availability by affecting components of the hydrological cycle. It also has an impact on the safety and quality of the human and natural environment through an increase in floods, droughts and erosion, and a decrease in water quality and ecosystem diversity. These impacts may subsequently have marked socio-economic consequences. It is of great importance to study climate change and its impact on water resources. With the climate change of the Tarim River Basin as the basis and background for analysis, and the hydrological cycle processes as the main line, the present study analyzed and discussed the characteristics of changing temperature and precipitation, as well as that of hydrological variables, such as runoff, evaporation, glacier and snow, responding to regional climate change with various statistical methods. The purpose is to disclose the plausible impacts of regional climate change on water resources and hydrological processes by linking the inherent contacts among them. The primary results are as follows: 1. The analysis on characteristics of climate change during the last 50 year showed that both the temperature and precipitation of the basin had a jump in the mid 1980s, and since then both of them had been increasing significantly. However, the rising temperature mainly occurred in winter and fall, and the increasing precipitation mostly appeared in summer. Compared to the plain area, the mountain area was more obvious in lifting the temperature but less significant in increasing the precipitation. For the headstream area, it became both warmer and wetter, and among the four regions of it, the climate changed most in the Aksu R. area, less in the Yarkant R. area, and least in the Kaidu-Kongqi R. area. As to the Hotan R. area, it increased significantly just in the temperature but indistinctively in the precipitation. For the mainstream area, however, it became much warmer without more precipitation. From the upstream to the lower reaches, the magnitude of the lifted temperature increased but that of the precipitation decreased gradually. At the Ruoqiang County, the precipitation was even less than before. Therefore, the hot and drought climate characteristics of the lower reaches of Tarim River have not been improved markedly. The responses to climate change for the different regions are various, while there exists a certain inner link among them. The EOF analysis on the temperature and precipitation showed that the climate change in the Tarim River Basin exhibited some distribution characteristics, such as all-consistency, North-South anti-phase and East-(Middle)-West anti-phasen, but the all-consistency dominated the whole area. The increase (or decrease) in temperature and precipitation for some area means the decrease (or increase) in that for other area. The mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of the basin had no marked relationship with ENSO, but El Nino had some impacts on the temperature and precipitation of certain seasons. In El Nino year, it had high temperature and abundant precipitation, while in the El Nino following year and La Nina year, only the temperature decreased and the precipitation had no obvious change. 2. The analysis on surface runoff responding to climate change showed that the hydrological processes of the four headstreams had changed with the changing climate. The runoff volume of the Aksu R., the Yarkant R. and the Kaidu-Kongqi R. increased, but that of the Hotan R. decreased. Testing with various methods, the runoff volume of the Aksu R. had a significant monotonic increasing trend, there was no jump occurred, and the Hurst index indicated that the runoff would increase further. The runoff volume of the Yarkant R. had no obvious monotonic increasing trend and there was no jump either, and the Hurst index indicated that the future runoff had a possibility of decreasing. The runoff of the Hotan R. had no significant decreasing trend and there was no jump. The Hurst index of it indicated the future runoff had a possibility of changing from decreasing to increasing. The runoff of Kaidu-Kongqi R. increased but not significantly, and a jump occurred in the mid-to-late 1980s. Its Hurst index indicated that the future runoff would keep increasing. By periodicity analysis, the three headstreams of upper reaches behaved a stable periodic change by 17a. The trend model superposed with periodicity forecasted that the runoff volume in 2004,2005 and 2009 was abundant, that in 2006-2008 would decreased but they were still more than the mean annual by 4.1%, 7.3% and 1%, respectively. The runoff would have a wide-range decrease in 2010 with 8% lower than the mean annual. Overall, the year 2004 and 2005 were wet year, while that 2006-2010 were low flow years. The accumulated departure from mean of runoff, temperature and precipitation showed that the runoff of the Aksu R. and the Kaidu-Kongqi R. successively lagged behind the temperature and precipitation, respectively, and started the most significant change in the 1990s. Correspondingly, the runoff of the Yarkant R. and the Hotan R. lagged behind the precipitation but preceded the temperature to change. The future trend forecast indicated that the total water volume from the headstreams would increase with the rising temperature but decrease with the increasing precipitation. When the future precipitation increased by 20% and the temperature lifted 1℃, 1.5℃ and 2℃, the runoff volume would increase by 8.7%, 14.5% and 18.2%, respectively, however, the evaporation would increased by 180.9%, 352.6% and 554.69%, respectively. With the water increasing, more heavy floods aggravated and the water table of the lake was lifted. There was no significant correlation between anuual runoff volume and ENSO, but whether it existed between seasonal runoff volume and ENSO is still worthy to be studied. 3. The analysis on glacier and snow responding to climate change showed that the glacier of the Tarim River Basin was accelerating in melting. Consequently, the glacier behaved the negative mass balance. The ablation volume was positively correlated with the temperature but negatively related to the precipitation. Meanwhile, the runoff volume of the river recharged by glacier melting water would first increase then decrease within a long enough period of time. The glacier retreating not only triggered more various snow-ice floods, but also resulted in the snowline rising, the frozen soil disappearing, the mountain forests moving up and the soil erosion aggravated. The snow cover area and the snow depth are the sensitive indicators to climate change. With the temperature rising, however, the snow cover area exhibited a slow increasing trend. Among the different altitude zones, the mid one (2500~5000m) was the area most sensitive to and affected by climate change. Compared to that in the 1980s, the rates of both snowfall and snow ablation were getting faster in the 1990s. The correlation analysis showed that the snow cover area was positively correlated with the precipitation in cold season, but had no strong correlation with the temperature in cold season. Similarly, the maximum snow depth of the basin also presented a slow increasing trend, and it had a positive correlation with the winter precipitation and a negative correlation with the winter temperature and the runoff volume. Overall, the increased water volume from the headstreams since the 1990s is more correlated with the increasing temperature, subsequently increased the glacier thawing water, and the increasing precipitation.
语种	中文
学科主题	气候学
公开日期	2010-11-12
页码	共153页
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/7880]
专题	新疆生态与地理研究所_中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所(2010年以前数据)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	徐长春. 塔里木河流域气候变化及其水文过程响应[D]. 中国科学院．新疆生态与地理研究所. 2007.

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