A Quantitative Definition of Global Warming Hiatus and 50-Year Prediction of Global-Mean Surface Temperature

doi:10.1175/JAS-D-14-0296.1

	A Quantitative Definition of Global Warming Hiatus and 50-Year Prediction of Global-Mean Surface Temperature
	Wei, Meng 1,2,3,4; Qiao, Fangli 2,3; Deng, Jia 2,3
刊名	JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
	2015-08
卷号	72 期号:8 页码:3281-3289
关键词	Adaptive models Climate variability Multidecadal variability Trends
ISSN号	0022-4928
DOI	10.1175/JAS-D-14-0296.1
英文摘要	Recent global warming hiatus has received much attention; however, a robust and quantitative definition for the hiatus is still lacking. Recent studies by Scafetta, Wu et al., and Tung and Zhou showed that multidecadal variability (MDV) is responsible for the multidecadal accelerated warming and hiatuses in historical global-mean surface temperature (GMST) records, though MDV itself has not received sufficient attention thus far. Here, the authors introduce four key episodes in GMST evolution, according to different phases of the MDV extracted by the ensemble empirical-mode decomposition method from the ensemble HadCRUT4 monthly GMST time series. The warming (cooling) hiatus and typical warming (cooling) periods are defined as the 95% confidence intervals for the locations of local MDV maxima (minima) and of their derivatives, respectively. Since 1850, the warming hiatuses, cooling hiatuses, and typical warming have already occurred three times and the typical cooling has occurred twice. At present, the MDV is in its third warming-hiatus period, which started in 2012 and would last until 2017, followed by a 30-yr cooling episode, while the trend will sustain the current steady growth in the next 50 years. Their superposition presents steplike rising since 1850. It is currently ascending a new height and will stay there until the next warming phase of the MDV carries it higher.
资助项目	National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)[2012CB957802]
WOS关键词	EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION ; OCEAN HEAT UPTAKE ; CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS ; DECADAL CHANGES ; CIRCULATION ; SLOWDOWN ; PACIFIC
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS记录号	WOS:000359350400025
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.fio.com.cn:8080/handle/2SI8HI0U/26802]
专题	自然资源部第一海洋研究所
通讯作者	Qiao, Fangli
作者单位	1.Ocean Univ China, Coll Phys & Environm Oceanog, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.State Ocean Adm, Key Lab Marine Sci & Numer Modeling, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China 3.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China 4.Meteorol Bur Jiaozhou, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wei, Meng,Qiao, Fangli,Deng, Jia. A Quantitative Definition of Global Warming Hiatus and 50-Year Prediction of Global-Mean Surface Temperature[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2015,72(8):3281-3289.
APA	Wei, Meng,Qiao, Fangli,&Deng, Jia.(2015).A Quantitative Definition of Global Warming Hiatus and 50-Year Prediction of Global-Mean Surface Temperature.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,72(8),3281-3289.
MLA	Wei, Meng,et al."A Quantitative Definition of Global Warming Hiatus and 50-Year Prediction of Global-Mean Surface Temperature".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 72.8(2015):3281-3289.